Oman Talks: Last chance for Mideast peace or trigger for war?

Shafaq News/ Attention is fixed on the outcome of the upcoming US-Iran negotiations set to take place in Oman, as their results whether positive or negative are expected to have significant consequences for the region's stability.

Three well-informed sources indicate that intelligence reports have warned of a possible large-scale security escalation in the Middle East, particularly along the Iraq-Syria border, should the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement during the forthcoming talks in Oman’s capital.

The negotiations, scheduled for this Saturday, will be led by US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Oman has long played a mediating role in regional issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear program.

Over the past decade, the sultanate hosted discreet talks between Washington and Tehran, which paved the way for the 2015 nuclear deal. Oman is widely regarded as a neutral and trusted intermediary, distanced from the region’s Gulf tensions.

According to sources, the United States recently conveyed a message to Iran via the United Arab Emirates. However, Tehran responded with caution, wary of deepening engagement with Abu Dhabi due to its close ties with Israel.

Iran has also expressed reservations about potential Russian mediation. The upcoming talks in Muscat are expected to focus on launching unconditional negotiations.

However, failure to reach an agreement could push regional and international actors to escalate matters in a bid to compel Tehran to accept new negotiation terms.

This comes amid growing internal challenges in Iran, including a struggling economy due to US sanctions under the "maximum pressure" policy, compounded by falling global oil prices.

According to one anonymous source who talked to Shafaq News, the US and Israel have set a one-month deadline for implementing a regional plan aimed at reshaping the Middle East. This includes reducing Iranian influence and adopting a "direct deterrence" policy while preventing Tehran from interfering in neighboring countries' affairs.

Multiple strategic objectives

The source further revealed that the escalation could be part of a broader plan to end Iran's nuclear program and strengthen Israeli presence in Syria, particularly through support for Israeli operations inside Syrian territory, where the Syrian government’s response remains negligible.

Additionally, the plan could involve engaging local Druze groups to solidify Israeli influence in specific regions of Syria, where Israeli personnel are otherwise sparse.

There are also reports of a comprehensive strategy to reshape Gaza's future, beginning with pressuring Hamas to agree to a prisoner exchange without preconditions, followed by a gradual withdrawal from the territory in preparation for its economic and tourist revitalization, given its oil reserves and strategic location.

In recent days, Israeli media reported that Israel had set the condition of "disarming Hamas" as a key issue in the ongoing negotiations to end the war that began on October 7. Sources also stated that Jordan is expected to take in an initial group of around 1,000 Gaza families with chronic health conditions, who will be placed in shelters in Amman.

Egypt is expected to host displaced individuals in the Sinai desert, as part of a broader effort to restore stability to critical maritime corridors and reactivate the Suez Canal, which has been disrupted by tensions in the Red Sea due to the Yemen conflict.

Baghdad’s Position

In contrast to Jordan and Egypt, Iraq has rejected being included as a potential destination for Palestinian families, temporarily removing it from the plan. There has been no official comment from the Iraqi government on this matter.

Meanwhile, the Iraq-Syria border remains a highly sensitive security zone, with Iran-backed militias active in the area, which the US considers a forward zone of Iranian influence. In recent years, the area has been targeted by frequent airstrikes, attributed to Israel or the US-led Coalition, aiming at weapon storage facilities and movements of Iran-aligned militias.

Military Movements and Beyond the Nuclear Issue

In recent weeks, Washington has ramped up its military activity, deploying B-52 strategic bombers and additional naval forces. Western officials initially interpreted these movements as a deterrence message aimed at Tehran amidst rising tensions in Gaza and Yemen.

However, the scale and frequency of these operations have fueled speculation that Washington's objectives may extend beyond merely containing Iran’s nuclear program.

The US has intensified airstrikes against Houthi positions in Yemen, citing these as "defensive" actions in response to repeated attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Strikes have also targeted missile launch sites, weapon storage facilities, and drone platforms, aiming to degrade the Houthis' ability to threaten international shipping.

Meanwhile, the Houthis continue to target US ships. Analysts suggest that the intensity of these airstrikes, with more than ten daily raids, may signal a broader strategic message to Iran, as the Houthis are considered part of Tehran’s regional network.

Intelligence assessments suggest the US may use its escalation against the Houthis as a precursor to imposing a new deterrence reality on Tehran, especially with the nuclear talks reaching an impasse.

Notably, the New York Times reported that the Pentagon has spent approximately $200 million on munitions in the first three weeks of Operation "Iron Resolve" against the Houthis, with costs expected to exceed $1 billion soon.

Despite the increase in strikes, officials acknowledged that the campaign had achieved "limited success" in reducing the Houthis' large military arsenal.

Iran: Preparing for the Worst

In a notable development, sources close to Iran’s decision-making circles revealed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has recently ordered the Revolutionary Guard to raise combat readiness and prepare for "worst-case scenarios," including the possibility of an all-out military confrontation.

While the directive did not include a formal declaration of war, it indicates Tehran’s awareness of the growing risks of an open conflict, whether triggered by a potential Israeli strike or direct US action targeting critical Iranian facilities.

These developments come as Western sources confirm that the Pentagon has "contingency plans" in place for potential escalation scenarios should diplomatic efforts in Muscat fail, with reports suggesting that the US has updated its target bank in the region to include sensitive Iranian facilities.

However, no official confirmation has been made. Amid these rising tensions, Reuters reported that Iranian officials have warned neighboring countries, including Iraq, that they will target any nation "from which US attacks on Iranian territory originate."

While these warnings are not new, they carry greater significance this time due to the increasing likelihood of military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Iraq, caught in the crossfire of these regional developments, has yet to clarify its stance on US demands regarding Iran-aligned factions. Shafaq News Agency reached out to the Iraqi government for comment on the latest Iranian threats and escalatory signals, but a government advisor declined to speak, citing the lack of a clear direction at this stage.