Baghdad's shadow play: Syria visit exposes deep Iraqi political rifts

Shafaq News/ The recent unannounced visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani to Baghdad on Friday, after multiple delays, has drawn attention to the evolving dynamics between Iraq and Syria. According to analysts, the visit was aimed at easing tensions, fostering better understanding, and reassuring Iraq that Syria will not pose a threat to its security.

Delays and Regional Pressures

The visit had initially been planned for an earlier date but was delayed several times, with the official reasons for the postponement remaining unclear.

Political analyst Mujashaa al-Tamimi attributes these delays to the significant regional and international pressures on Iraq, particularly from the US and Iran. “This external influence has created a division within Iraq's political landscape, particularly regarding its stance on Syria.”

Al-Tamimi explains that some factions, particularly those aligned with Iran, have resisted closer ties with Syria, viewing the new Syrian administration as a setback for the Iranian axis. In contrast, other groups, particularly Sunni forces, support Syria’s political changes and back the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Divided Iraqi Discourse

The discourse surrounding the visit highlights the divide in Iraq's political approach to Syria. The Iraqi government, in line with the official stance, considers the Syrian conflict an internal matter and insists that Iraq should not intervene in Syria’s affairs, despite the popular sentiment in Syria calling for Iraq’s involvement.

On the other hand, Shiite political forces in Iraq view the changes in Syria as a significant loss for Iran and, as a result, oppose normalization with the new Syrian government.

Meanwhile, Sunni political factions, particularly those aligned with the US and its allies, have supported Syria’s political shift and are advocating for the removal of Al-Assad’s regime.

Mokhtar al-Moussawi, a member of the Al-Fatah Alliance headed by Hadi al-Amiri, declared his rejection of rapprochement with the Syrian administration, considering that “the new Syrian administration is not a government because it is accused of sectarianism, executing foreign agendas, and making wrong decisions and steps.”

Al-Moussawi, who is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, said in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that “the Syrian administration is imported from abroad, and it will not last long. We will not sit with them, even if an agreement is reached between the two countries.”

This position contrasts with the earlier statement by Iraqi Foreign Ministry Deputy Minister Hisham al-Alawi in which he revealed that the Iraqi government has opened up to the transitional administration in Syria. He mentioned that their representatives attended meetings in Paris and Riyadh, and arrangements are being made for a meeting in Brussels.

Iraq’s Balanced Stance

Al-Tamimi also notes that the Syrian conflict is part of a broader US strategy in the region, and Iraq, like other countries, cannot oppose this strategy without facing consequences. Therefore, despite Iraq’s internal divisions, the government has avoided taking an overtly oppositional stance toward Syria. Instead, it has engaged diplomatically, including sending the head of intelligence to Damascus and hosting Foreign Minister al-Shibani in Baghdad, “signaling Iraq’s cautious approach to balancing regional and international pressures.”

The secrecy surrounding the visit was also a strategic decision. According to a source in the Syrian government, the visit was kept confidential to avoid security risks to al-Shibani and prevent potential political backlash from Iraqi factions opposed to Syria.

The Coordination Framework, a key political force in Iraq, has been vocal in its opposition to closer ties with Syria, making the discreet nature of the visit a necessary step to prevent media and political campaigns against it.

Reassurance and Security Cooperation

The visit's central message was to reassure Iraq that Syria would not use its territory as a staging ground for threats against Iraq, according to Syrian political analyst Yaman Shawaf.

Shawaf reiterates to Shafaq News Agency that al-Shibani's visit is part of an effort to establish reassurance that Syria will not be a threat to Iraq, emphasizing the importance of coordination to protect borders and reduce tensions between Damascus and Baghdad.

He points out that concerns about the Syrian administration were not limited to Iraq alone, as many countries shared Baghdad's concerns, especially regarding the transformation of al-Julani into al-Sharaa. “However, Damascus has worked to allay the fears of other countries, leading to significant American and European diplomatic visits to Damascus. This reflects the international and Arab community's desire to work toward stability in Syria and recognize the current government while monitoring its actions.”

In turn, Syrian researcher and writer Bassam al-Suleiman, states, “It is crucial to restore relations between Iraq and Syria, especially given the many forces in both countries pushing for this direction. Baghdad is a depth for Damascus, and vice versa.”

Suleiman adds to Shafaq News Agency, “The two countries are brothers, regardless of the negative situation created by Iran and the former Syrian regime in the region. Therefore, Iran and its proxies should not be allowed to separate the two peoples, who have ties dating back to before Islam.”

Al-Shibani’s comments at the press conference with Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein underscored Syria’s commitment to strengthening its ties with Iraq. He emphasized that both countries should stand together against any external interference in their internal affairs and reiterated Syria’s desire to boost economic and trade relations with Iraq.

Security and Political Discussions

In addition to economic ties, the discussions focused on joint security efforts, particularly in combating ISIS, which remains a common threat for both Iraq and Syria.

Minister Hussein noted the shared challenges both countries face in dealing with ISIS and mentioned the idea of forming a joint operations room to combat ISIS terrorism. He also expressed Iraq's hope for a political process in Syria that includes all of the country’s components, warning that excluding any group could lead to further instability.

Hussein also mentioned that a cooperation council between Iraq and Syria could be established to address security, political, economic, and diplomatic issues. These discussions, according to sources, centered on practical mechanisms for cooperation, including border security and joint efforts to address the continued spread of terrorist groups in the Syrian desert.

As Syria works to re-establish itself regionally, Iraq’s cautious engagement demonstrates its desire to maintain stability and security in a volatile environment. This visit, though discreet, represents a step toward enhanced cooperation between the two countries, especially in addressing security challenges and fostering economic ties. However, Iraq's divided political climate suggests that this engagement will remain a delicate balancing act, shaped by both domestic and external forces.