European gas prices could more than double if Hormuz shipping halts
Shafaq News
Goldman Sachs on Monday projected that European natural gas prices could more than double if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are suspended for a month.
Roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies —most of them from Qatar— transit through the strategic waterway.
According to the bank, a one-month disruption could drive European gas and Asian spot LNG prices up by as much as 130%, to around $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
A longer hypothetical disruption —exceeding two months— could push European gas prices above €100 per megawatt-hour (roughly $35 per MMBtu), potentially triggering a sharp contraction in global gas demand.
However, Goldman Sachs said the impact on US natural gas would likely remain limited, noting that the United States is a major net exporter of LNG and that liquefaction facilities typically operate at full capacity, leaving little room to increase shipments.
On Sunday, Reuters cited shipping data showing that more than 150 oil and gas tankers were halted in Gulf waters outside the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel-tracking data indicated that most commercial ships had stopped on both sides of the strait, except for Iranian and Chinese warships.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that war risk insurers have issued cancellation notices to shipowners for vessels transiting the strait, with coverage costs expected to rise by up to 50% in the coming days.
Iran’s military earlier declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, warning vessels that the route was unsafe.
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