Currency issuance rose 13.8 percent through May

Shafaq News- Baghdad

Iraq's currency issuance rose 13.8 percent in the first five months of 2026, reaching about 113.56 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $86B) by the end of May, an increase of 13.761 trillion dinars from the close of 2025 (about $10.4B), the financial and economic adviser to the prime minister, Mudhhir Mohammed Salih, told Shafaq News.

Salih said the rise was an exceptional response to a sharp fall in oil revenue, not a monetary expansion meant to stimulate demand.

Currency issuance refers to the total value of banknotes the Central Bank of Iraq has put into circulation. The figure stood at 99.799 trillion dinars at the end of December 2025, according to data tracked by Shafaq News.

The measure climbed to 101.431 trillion dinars in January 2026, 104.614 trillion in February, 108.985 trillion in March, and 112.896 trillion in April, before reaching 113.560 trillion in May, according to the Shafaq News survey. The largest monthly rise came in March, at about 4.371 trillion dinars, followed by 3.911 trillion in April.

The expansion coincided with a financial crisis tied to a steep drop in oil exports, Salih said. Iraqi exports fell to about 15 percent of their usual levels as a result of the Strait of Hormuz conflict —the waterway through which Iraq shipped about 95% of its total oil exports— before recovering to around 30 percent. The issuance met the government's need for liquidity to cover public-sector salaries and essential spending amid the revenue shortfall, rather than to expand demand, he added.

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Most of those funding needs were met by widening domestic public debt through treasury bills, which state banks bought and then rediscounted at the central bank; as a result, the bank now holds more than 60 percent of government debt instruments in its investment portfolio, according to Salih.

Salih described the rise as "an exceptional response to a temporary external financial shock," rather than a sign of monetary or financial breakdown.

The risk of the expansion should be judged by monetary stability indicators rather than the size of issuance alone, Salih said. Foreign reserves still covered the money supply above the 75 percent threshold that international practice treats as a marker of a sound monetary position, and annual inflation held steady at about 4.5 percent, indicating the increase had not yet translated into broad inflationary pressure.

Read more: Delayed 2026 budget pushes Iraq toward 2027 plan

Sustaining the path over a long period carries growing risks, Salih cautioned. Repeated reliance on monetizing public debt through the central bank could generate inflationary pressure over time, or erode reserve coverage, if oil revenue does not recover sufficiently. “Monetary policy in the next phase would depend, in coordination with fiscal policy, on preserving reserve adequacy, limiting monetary financing of the deficit, and rebuilding balance between public revenue and government spending as oil conditions improve.”

The pace slowed at the end of the period, with the monthly increase falling to about 664 billion dinars in May, according to Shafaq News survey.

*1 US dollar = 1310 dinars