Desertification spreads despite improved water levels in southern Iraq
Shafaq News- Baghdad
Southern Iraq is facing a growing contradiction: water levels in rivers and reservoirs have improved, yet desertification continues to expand, rural communities are shrinking, and migration to cities is accelerating.
Although authorities say the current season is “relatively comfortable” and have broadened agricultural plans, experts told Shafaq News that the country's water challenges remain unresolved.
Water resources expert Tahseen Al-Mousawi said Iraq endured severe shocks over the past four years, culminating in 2025 when reserves fell below five billion cubic meters before dropping to nearly two billion. “The recent rains were not a real breakthrough, but temporary relief,” he remarked. “What happened was a natural response from the sky, not the result of better management or water agreements with neighboring countries.”
Around 70% of the country’s water, Al-Mousawi noted, originates beyond its borders through the Tigris, Euphrates, and their tributaries, leaving the country vulnerable to upstream policies. Expanding the summer cultivation plan to around 1.8 million dunams (180,000 hectares), including more than 360,000 dunams (36,000 hectares) of rice, could place additional pressure on supplies at a time when actual reserves remain far below storage capacity.
Read more: Iraq’s water crisis: A structural rewrite of agricultural governance
Official data show Iraq’s annual water inflows have fallen to between 25 and 40 billion cubic meters, roughly 30–40% below historical averages, while yearly demand exceeds 50 billion cubic meters. Strategic reserves in major dams and lakes currently stand between seven and 10 billion cubic meters.
Former parliamentary Agriculture Committee member Zozan Kochar, meanwhile, called the issue “a matter of national security,” cautioning that higher water levels should not distract from long-term challenges linked to climate change and weak regional coordination.
The United Nations ranks Iraq among the five countries most affected by climate extremes, with environmental pressures increasingly affecting livelihoods and cultural heritage. Environmental expert Ahmed Saleh told Shafaq News that rainfall and flooding have revived parts of the Hawizeh Marshes, a UNESCO-listed heritage site, but central areas remain vulnerable because of limited inflows.
According to the Green Iraq Observatory, 40.4 million dunams (4.04M hectares), or 23.2% of land area, are already desertified, while more than 96 million dunams (9.6M hectares) remain at risk. It estimates that the country loses about 100,000 dunams (10,000 hectares) of farmland each year due to salinity and soil degradation, with Dhi Qar, Maysan, Al-Muthanna, and Al-Diwaniyah among the hardest-hit provinces.
In Dhi Qar, Desertification Committee head Haider Saadi said years of drought have displaced thousands of families, including around 10,500 people who remain uprooted. Buffalo herds have suffered heavy losses, while fish stocks and traditional rural livelihoods have also declined.
Read more: Iraq’s Green Belt: The race to forestall desertification
