Syria needs +50 years to recover to pre-war economy, UN report

Shafaq News/ Syria’s economy will take 55 years to return to its pre-war level, the United Nations said on Friday, highlighting the long-term economic devastation of the conflict that began in 2011.

Achim Steiner, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Administrator, stated in a report that “Beyond immediate humanitarian aid, Syria’s recovery requires long-term investment in development to build economic and social stability for its people.”

Steiner emphasized the need to “Restoring productivity for jobs and poverty relief, revitalizing agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services such as healthcare, education and energy are key to a self-sustaining future, prosperity, and peace.”

According to the report, with Syria’s current annual economic growth rate of about 1.3% between 2018 and 2024, “its GDP will not return to 2010 levels until 2080, nearly 55 years from now.”

The conflict has also reversed decades of development, with Syria’s Human Development Index—measuring life expectancy, education, and living standards—falling below its 1990 level, effectively wiping out more than 30 years of progress.

The UNDP examined the pace of growth required for Syria’s GDP to return to its 2010 level and the rate needed to reach where the economy could have been without the war.

Under the most “realistic” scenario, merely recovering to the 2010 GDP level would require sustained annual growth of 7.6% for a decade—six times the current rate—or 5% annually for 15 years, or 3.7% annually for 20 years, the report estimated.

A more ambitious scenario, in which Syria’s economy reaches the level it could have attained without the war, would demand growth of 21.6% per year for a decade, 13.9% per year for 15 years, or 10.3% per year for 20 years.

Abdallah Al-Dardari, UNDP Assistant Administrator and Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States, said only a “comprehensive strategy,” including governance reforms and infrastructure rebuilding, could allow Syria to “regain control over its future” and “reduce reliance on external aid.”