Istanbul at risk of huge earthquakes, experts warn

Shafaq News/ Scientists have warned that Turkiye remains critically unprepared for a major earthquake, putting hundreds of thousands of lives at risk and threatening billions of dollars in economic losses.

Seismologist Naci Görür told Germany’s dpa news agency that Istanbul alone could see nearly 100,000 buildings collapse in the event of a powerful quake. “The potential death toll could reach hundreds of thousands,” Görür said, urging authorities to take immediate action to reinforce critical infrastructure and improve emergency preparedness.

Turkiye sits on the North Anatolian Fault Line, one of the world’s most active seismic zones, making Istanbul, the country’s largest city and economic hub, highly vulnerable to earthquakes.

Despite this risk, preparedness measures remain inadequate, Görür warned. He emphasized that current policies and urban planning efforts are "not enough to mitigate the potential devastation of a large-scale earthquake."

His concerns were echoed by Turkish Minister of Urban Development Murat Kurum, who acknowledged that Istanbul’s infrastructure is "not capable of withstanding a major tremor."

The warnings come as Turkiye continues to recover from the February 2023 earthquakes, which killed more than 53,000 people and injured over 100,000 in the country’s southeastern region.

The last catastrophic earthquake to strike Istanbul was in 1999, when a 7.6-magnitude quake devastated the city’s eastern region, killing more than 17,000 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.

Experts fear that a major earthquake in Istanbul would be devastating, given the city’s dense population, aging infrastructure, and insufficient emergency response measures.

Seismologists and urban planners have called on the Turkish government to take swift action, reinforcing high-risk buildings and developing a comprehensive emergency response strategy.

“The time to act is now,” Görür warned. “We cannot afford to wait until it’s too late.”