US warning on Iranian influence in Iraq signals potential policy shift

Shafaq News/ A fresh wave of concern has swept through Baghdad’s political class following pointed remarks by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who described Iran’s growing influence in Iraq as a "serious threat to American interests."

Rubio’s testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday is widely seen as a signal that the United States may be preparing to reassess its relationship with Iraq—potentially taking decisive measures if Baghdad fails to curb the influence of Iran-backed factions.

The Secretary painted a stark picture of Iran’s deepening reach into Iraq’s political and security institutions. He cited the increasing entrenchment of pro-Iranian elements in key state structures and warned that their presence poses a rising threat to US personnel, facilities, and strategic objectives. Rubio specifically referenced armed groups that have previously targeted American assets in Iraq, suggesting that preparations for future attacks are underway.

While Washington’s concerns are not new, the tone and platform of Rubio’s statement—delivered in a formal Congressional hearing—signal a heightened level of urgency, particularly in the context of the Biden administration’s revived pressure strategy on Iran and its regional proxies.

Observers argue that Rubio’s remarks reflect more than rhetorical positioning; they highlight Washington’s mounting frustration with Baghdad’s perceived inability—or reluctance—to rein in the influence of factions aligned with Tehran.

Iraqi Lawmakers: Misplaced Statements

The response from Iraqi lawmakers was swift. MP Ali Nehme Al-Bandawi, a member of the parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, rejected Rubio’s comments as inaccurate and politically motivated.

Speaking to Shafaq News, Al-Bandawi emphasized that Iraq’s government is constitutionally legitimate and representative, elected by the Iraqi people, and does not tolerate foreign interference.

“These statements are neither new nor reflective of reality,” Al-Bandawi said, stressing that Baghdad exercises full sovereignty and does not permit neighboring states—or any external actor—to influence its internal decisions.

He also pointed to Iraq’s growing diplomatic engagement with regional and international partners, asserting that the country is playing a constructive role in promoting peace and cooperation across the region. “Baghdad has become a platform for dialogue, not conflict,” he added.

Kurdish View: Familiar Demands from Washington

Wafa Karim, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), noted that US demands to limit Iranian influence in Iraq are not new, but have persisted for years—particularly those concerning support for armed factions that Washington views as threats to its interests.

Karim told Shafaq News that the Trump administration had previously pursued a policy aimed at removing Iranian influence and placing all weapons under state control—a policy that included disarming non-state forces.

“Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has made repeated pledges to integrate militias into state forces and dissolve their military structures,” Karim said. “But these promises remain largely unfulfilled, leaving Iraq vulnerable to external pressure and internal instability.”

Karim also linked the renewed US warnings to ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. “Washington is signaling that Iraq must begin to detach itself from Tehran and its regional affiliates. Given the shifting geopolitical landscape and the declining cohesion of the so-called Shiite Crescent, Iraq may soon have little choice but to adapt.”

He warned that the US may impose consequences if Baghdad fails to act—particularly if militias remain intact and cross-border smuggling of oil and currency to Iran continues.

Strategic Calculations Behind the US Position

Ihsan Al-Shammari, professor of strategic and international studies and head of the Political Thinking Center, sees Rubio’s remarks as part of a broader American reassessment of Iraq’s strategic role.

Speaking to Shafaq News, Al-Shammari explained that Washington increasingly views Iraq through the lens of its Iran containment strategy. He pointed to the recent National Security Presidential Memorandum reinstating maximum pressure on Iran, which also listed Iraq as a key theater of concern.

“The Al-Sudani government has not met US benchmarks on curbing Iranian influence,” Al-Shammari noted. “There’s been no dismantling of Tehran’s networks inside Iraqi institutions, and the government has failed to disarm or neutralize the role of militias aligned with Iran.”

He added that Tehran’s continued sway over Iraqi politics is also undermining Washington’s efforts to strengthen Baghdad–Erbil relations. “Iran-backed actors are actively obstructing energy agreements signed between the Kurdistan Regional Government and US firms—agreements central to American interests in the region,” he said.

“These tensions could redefine how Washington engages with Baghdad in the near future.”

Oil Contracts and Kurdish Autonomy: A Flashpoint

Rubio also stressed the need to respect the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region and to honor agreements involving US companies operating there. His comments coincided with a new dispute between Baghdad and Erbil over energy contracts.

Earlier this week, Iraq’s Oil Ministry objected to energy agreements signed in Washington between the KRG and two US-based firms—HKN and WesternZagros—arguing that such deals were unauthorized.

In response, the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources clarified that the contracts were not new and had already been approved by Iraqi courts. The ministry stated that the agreements were legally valid and unchallenged.

The disagreement highlights the growing tension between the federal and regional governments and may reflect deeper political divides that could trigger further US engagement—particularly if economic interests are jeopardized.

A Pivotal Crossroads

Whether Rubio’s remarks translate into policy action remains to be seen, the United States appears increasingly unwilling to tolerate what it perceives as Iraq’s failure to curb Iran’s footprint. With Prime Minister al-Sudani caught between competing internal forces and external expectations, his government faces narrowing room for maneuver.

As Al-Shammari noted, Washington may soon shift from issuing warnings to redefining its approach—whether through diplomatic pressure, conditional aid, or adjusted security policies.