Turkish President strategic journey: reshaping relations with Iraq and the Kurdistan Region

Shafaq News/ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region has renewed interest in regional diplomacy.

With the signing of 26 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including contracts related to Turkish companies developing Iraqi irrigation systems, tourism cooperation, trade, investments, and even security coordination, the relations seem more stable, whether between Ankara and Baghdad or Ankara and Erbil.

A historic visit to Baghdad and Erbil

On Monday, the Turkish President arrived in Baghdad on his first visit in 13 years since his last visit as Prime Minister in March 2011.

Erdogan is accompanied by his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, Trade Minister Omar Polat, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdul Qadir Uraloglu, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alp Arslan Bayraktar, and Industry and Technology Minister, Mehmet Fatih Kacar.

President Erdogan is also accompanied by Fahrettin Altun, the Head of the Presidential Communications Directorate, and Akif Cagatay Kilic, the President's advisor for foreign policy and security.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani welcomed him at Baghdad International Airport with a ceremony that included 21-gun salutes, the country's highest honor.

During his one-day visit, Erdogan held discussions with high-level Iraqi officials, including PM Al-Sudani, President Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid, and Sunni figures.

Later in his journey, the Turkish President headed to Erbil, where he was warmly welcomed by President Nechirvan Barzani, Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

The visit comes amid a broad strategic rapprochement between Iraq and Turkiye following a series of high-level security meetings involving the Foreign Ministers, Defense Ministers, heads of intelligence agencies, and other officials from Turkiye and Iraq, held on March 13th in Baghdad.

A turning point visit

President Erdogan's recent visit to Baghdad and Erbil is seen as a pivotal moment that could herald a new phase in Ankara's engagement with Iraq following years of relative absence, stagnation, and intermittent tensions.

The timing of Erdogan's visit is notable. It occurred amid a series of significant developments that have added weight to the diplomatic maneuvers. One such event was Al-Sudani's return from a visit to Washington and meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden to clarify the scope and nature of American involvement in Iraq—an issue of direct concern to Ankara given its strategic influence in both Iraqi and Syrian contexts.

Moreover, Erdogan's trip coincided with a landmark event in the Middle East—the first direct clash between Iran and Israel, involving Iraqi airspace in a cross-border escalation.

This regional turbulence pushed Erdogan's awareness that such conflicts, which spill over into Iraq, jeopardize Turkiye's regional security and interests.

Against this backdrop, there is a growing recognition among key players in Baghdad, Ankara, and Erbil regarding the imperative of maintaining a ceasefire in Gaza and preventing wider regional conflict.

Erdogan, alongside Iraqi top officials Al-Sudani, Rashid, and President Barzani, has consistently emphasized the need for stability amid ongoing geopolitical challenges.

The confluence of these factors suggests a nuanced and evolving landscape in Turkish-Iraqi relations, where Erdogan's visit symbolizes a potential shift towards deeper engagement and collaborative efforts to navigate complex regional dynamics.

According to political analyst Archad Hermuz, the relationship between Turkiye and Iraq is paramount, given their status as "neighboring and fraternal nations." Hermuz stated that Turkiye consistently "advocates for Iraq's resurgence to its historical and civilizational prominence."

Hermuz underscored Turkiye's particular focus on the Kurdistan Region, citing numerous commonalities that bind Turkiye and the region, particularly in trade and security matters.

"Security holds critical significance for Turkiye, Iraq, and the Kurdistan Region, necessitating comprehensive discussions on these intertwined issues."

Regarding the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) issue, Hermuz noted a "sense of seriousness" expressed by the Iraqi and the Kurdish governments regarding "countering potential terrorist activities."

"The PKK operations violate the Iraqi constitution; therefore, there is an obligation to combat any terrorist operations emanating from its territories, especially those targeting neighboring countries like Turkiye."

In turn, Dr. Taha Oglu, a researcher in Turkish affairs and international relations, noted the visit's role in bolstering political presence and fostering agreements, notably the pivotal Development Road project, which will have "positive implications on both Turkiye and Iraq, as well as the participating nations, particularly concerning water resources."

Oglu highlighted the visit's economic outcomes, emphasizing its role in "inaugurating a new phase of Turkish-Iraqi relations across security, economic, commercial, and developmental domains."

"This reinvigoration signifies a fresh chapter in the bilateral ties between Turkiye and Iraq, promising mutual benefits and a reshaped relationship."

In addition, Oglu underscored Erdogan's visit to the Kurdistan Region as a crucial political juncture, pointing out the security dimension, particularly in light of Baghdad's approval of Ankara's request to clamp down on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), providing Turkiye with political backing for its actions within Iraq.

Meanwhile, Turkish political analyst Oktay Yilmaz highlighted the economic interests shared between Ankara, Baghdad, and Erbil.

"The focus was on enhancing economic ties through investment, boosting trade volumes, and initiating developmental projects, including the Development Road project linking southern Iraq to the Turkish border, which promises benefits for all stakeholders, including the Kurdistan Region."

Addressing oil-related disagreements, Yilmaz mentioned Erdogan's advice to both Baghdad and Erbil on the importance of resolving disputes to resume oil flow to Turkiye.

Tensions escalated in March 2022 between the two nations when Turkiye halted oil exports amounting to 450,000 bpd from Kurdistan following a compensation order by the International Chamber of Commerce related to "unauthorized" oil exports by the KRG between 2014 and 2018.

The crux of the dispute revolves around accusations that Turkiye breached a 50-year-old pipeline transit agreement by allowing oil exports from KRG-controlled areas without Iraq's consent.

A strategic shift in Turkish-Kurdish relations

Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Political Thinking Center in Iraq, highlighted the importance of President Erdogan's visit to the Kurdistan Region as a "reaffirmation of Ankara's alliance with Erbil," noting a shift in Turkiye's approach towards the Kurdistan Region, which he believes will have positive implications for Kurdish interests.

In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Shammari highlighted the potential for a robust partnership across political, economic, and security domains as a result of Erdogan's meetings with Kurdish leaders Masoud Barzani, Nechirvan Barzani, and Masrour Barzani.

"This visit is a step towards resolving key issues such as oil re-exports and Turkish military operations along the border."

Al-Shammari viewed direct dialogue between Erdogan and Erbil as crucial for "reaching comprehensive agreements and establishing a more stable and sustainable relationship between the parties involved.

In this regard, observers told Shafaq News that Turkiye recognizes Erbil's potential role in transforming Erdogan's image from a "heavy neighbor" with strained relations with some Iraqi forces over the past decade due to controversial files, including combatting terrorism, water disputes, and PKK activities, into a "neighborly partner" focused on cooperation, coordination, and stability.

The observers also noted that President Nechirvan Barzani has cultivated "deep ties" between Erbil and Ankara, including personal connections with Turkish leaders like Erdogan.