Trump's Middle East strategy: past policies and future prospects

Shafaq News: While it's uncertain if Donald Trump will exactly replicate his previous foreign policy if he wins in November, his actions and statements from 2017-2021, particularly regarding the Middle East—specifically Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Palestine—might offer insight into his future approach.

If Trump becomes the 47th president, as polls suggest, and his chances have increased after surviving a recent assassination attempt, he will likely manage the country and foreign policy in his signature style, with a business mindset, prioritizing “profit and loss” over ideology. This “populist leader”, with no substantial political legacy, views global issues through the lens of deal-making.

Observers predict that Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Palestine will be heavily impacted by Trump’s return to the White House, based on his past Middle Eastern policies.

Furthermore, Trump's presidency was marked by an "America First" approach, prioritizing internal issues over investing in international and regional organizations, alliances, and bodies. This led to his withdrawal from several international bodies and agreements, and attempts to leave NATO.

Following his usual deal-making approach, Trump recently stated he would propose a deal to end the Ukrainian-Russian war within weeks and persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin, in contrast to President Biden’s extensive involvement in the conflict.

Trump’s Pick Of J.D. Vance: A Shift Toward America First

Trump’s method of compromise is evident in his selection of J.D. Vance as deputy. Despite Vance's previous hostility and criticism, he is now a key partner in Trump’s presidential bid.

Observers suggested that Trump’s choice of Vance, a proponent of the “America First” principle, may intensify this inward focus.

Regarding the Middle East, it’s important to recall key events and positions from Trump’s first term, which may hint at his approach in a potential second term.

Trump's Iraq Strategy From Criticism To Crisis

During his first candidacy, Trump criticized former President George Bush's Iraq invasion, calling it a source of "unrest and chaos" in the Middle East, and stated his opposition to the war.

However, Trump swiftly threatened “severe sanctions” against the government of Adel-Abdul-Mahdi and the Iraqi parliament after they discussed ending foreign troop presence in Iraqi territories. This came after he ordered the January 3, 2020, airstrike near Baghdad Airport that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and and Deputy Head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis.

This assassination shifted US-Iraqi relations from stability to a phase of turmoil, with escalating attacks by Iraqi armed factions on US forces in Iraq and eastern Syria.

Nevertheless, successive governments—under Abdul Mahdi, Mustafa-Al-Kadhimi, and now Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani —have struggled to manage the fallout from the assassination. They have had to balance internal stability with Iraq’s interests, and its relationship with the US with the security and economic presence in Iraq.

Before and during his first term, Trump had various strategies for addressing the Iraqi issue. For instance, he frequently threatened "major revenge" against Iran if it targeted American interests in Iraq. Despite these warnings, Tehran bombed the Ain al-Assad base following the assassinations of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis.

Moreover, Trump aimed to reshape US-Iraq relations by limiting Iranian influence in Iraq, boosting US military presence, and ensuring American forces' freedom of movement, including in eastern Syria. He also vowed to eliminate ISIS from Iraq within 100 days, increase troop numbers, and support a friendly government in Baghdad.

On January 28, 2017, Trump signed a presidential memorandum directing the Secretary of Defense to present a new plan to defeat ISIS within 30 days and implement it immediately. The plan aims to defeat and eliminate ISIS through a comprehensive strategy, including public diplomacy, information operations, and electronic strategies to isolate and delegitimize ISIS and its extremist ideology. It also seeks to cut off ISIS's financial sources, including financial transfers, money laundering, and trading in stolen antiquities.

Months after the assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis, specifically in April 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for a “strategic dialogue” between the US and Iraq. This involved a series of meetings between senior American and Iraqi officials to discuss the future of their relationship.

Trump's approach to Iraq was closely tied to his stance on Iran. The tensions between the US and Iran had direct effects on Iraq, culminating in the assassination of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis.

Trump's Iran Policy: Sanctions And Uncertain Future

Trump ignited tensions with Iran by withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Tehran and reinstating sanctions on May 8, 2018.

At the time, Trump believed the nuclear agreement had not stopped Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons or advancing its ballistic missile program. He argued that a new agreement was needed to replace the one established by Barack Obama.

Nonetheless, Trump and his deputy, Vance, may shape future relations with Tehran. Although the nuclear agreement wasn't revived, Iran has advanced its nuclear program significantly since the 2018 withdrawal and has regained much of its economic and financial standing lost under Trump’s “maximum sanctions” policy.

Interestingly, while Americans might elect Trump back to the White House, Iranians have chosen a reformist candidate for their presidency. It remains unclear if Trump would resume his “maximum sanctions” policy on Tehran or consider calls from within the US government to grant Iran’s new reformist leader an opportunity.

Recently, Vance stated in a TV interview that while he supported Trump's first-term policies, he believes confronting Iran's hostile actions requires a "strong punch."

“If you're going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard.”

However, after Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel three months ago, Vance argued that Washington must act to prevent further escalation with Iran, which could harm US interests.

Trump and Vance have shown a strong bias towards Israel, evident from their statements. During the Gaza war, Trump made no clear criticisms of Israel or calls for it to halt actions many international bodies view as genocidal against Palestinians. In his debate with President Biden, he even accused him of being a “Palestinian” due to his stance on the conflict.