The Axis of Resistance retreating: will Iraq be the next to shift after Syria and Lebanon?

Shafaq News/ Iraq stands at a critical political crossroads. After the regional shifts in Lebanon and Syria, observers believe Iraq faces limited strategic options.

Following the election of a new Lebanese president, backed by the US and Saudi Arabia, and a settlement forced on Hezbollah due to the military setback it suffered in its recent conflict with Israel, coupled with the rise of a new administration in Syria that opposes Iranian influence in the region, what is left for Iraq to do?

According to analysts, the test for Iraq lies in its choice between neutrality, preserving its sovereignty and independence, or remaining within the "Axis of Resistance", a choice that could have significant political, economic, and security repercussions.

Iran and its allied forces in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon have suffered a severe blow. As a result, Tehran entered a phase of "backlash" following the export of its revolutionary project in 1979, as noted by Dr. Haytham Al-Heiti, a political science professor at the University of Exeter.

Al-Heiti explains in an interview with Shafaq News that Iran’s influence in Lebanon and Syria has ended, a situation that could reverse back into Iraq and even into Iran itself. “This reversal will have a profound effect on both Iraq and Iran, as the foundation of the Iranian system is rooted in the export of its revolution.”

Looking ahead, Al-Heiti expects Iran to increasingly cling to Iraq, as losing it would signal "the end of the Iranian regime". This puts Iraq, in his view, at a decisive crossroads: either Iran strengthens its influence there or ends it altogether—something that will be shaped by Trump’s policies toward Iraq.

He doesn’t anticipate the Trump administration relinquishing its influence in Iraq or focusing solely on Lebanon and Syria. "The Trump administration seeks a significant role in Iraq," he argues, predicting that Iranian influence will recede further into Tehran.

"Iraq is America’s prize," he says, explaining that Iraq’s energy resources and strategic location make it far more significant than Syria or Lebanon in terms of global power dynamics, especially regarding Chinese influence.

In response to attacks on Amercian bases in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, -One such attack resulted in the death of two American soldiers- US forces targeted several leaders of Iran-backed factions.

Al-Heiti asserts that while Syria and Lebanon's shifts were driven by Israeli threats, Iraq’s role has not been a direct threat but a supporter for those challenging Israel, a role now diminishing.

Iraq’s significance, he argues, lies in its strategic position as a gateway to Iran and China, which necessitates a substantial US economic not military role to prompt internal change.

Regarding the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president, Al-Heiti believes the new president, known for his previous opposition to Hezbollah, could mark a shift in the "Axis of Resistance." He suggests that Aoun, having benefitted from Hezbollah’s decline, will push the party to transform into a political entity only.

Aoun was elected after a series of consultations involving the US, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and an internal consensus among Lebanese parliamentary blocs.

Lebanese political analyst George Alam notes that Aoun’s inaugural speech outlined the government’s priorities, with a focus on Lebanon’s security, particularly in the south, which continues to suffer Israeli violations despite a ceasefire agreement.

Alam highlights that Aoun, with his military background, is well aware of the situation along the border and of the ongoing Israeli violations. Under the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese army, in collaboration with UNIFIL, is tasked with enforcing sovereignty in the south, although Israeli violations persist as the ceasefire enters its second phase.

He anticipates that Hezbollah will likely refrain from any military action against Israel after Aoun’s election, leaving the defense of the land to the Lebanese state and army.

US backing of the new president may lead to a de-escalation in the south and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, especially with the US insisting that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon by the end of the 60-day ceasefire.

These shifts in Lebanon and Syria are seen as a result of the retreat of the "Axis of Resistance," with Hezbollah’s acceptance of a settlement potentially favorable to Israel, and Syria’s exit from the axis without resistance, as observed by strategic policy researcher Dr. Kazem Yaour.

He predicts that this retreat will extend to Iraq, given the involvement of various factions, parties, and political support within this axis.

Yaour explains that the influence of the "Axis of Resistance" in Lebanon and Syria is directly linked to the presence of such an axis, and the same dynamics will play out in Iraq.

Observers note that Iraq is facing significant pressure to curb the influence of resistance factions within its government and institutions, with calls to remove individuals or parties linked to the resistance in order to extricate Iraq from this axis.

Earlier, Major General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, visited Baghdad and held discussions with several Iraqi officials and militia leaders.

Among the topics discussed was the restructuring of factions within the official Iraqi security apparatus.

The Al-Nujaba movement has given preliminary approval for its integration into the Iraqi military, with talks underway about its reorganization in compliance with the directives of Iraq’s top military commander.