Region on the brink: will Iraq extend US-led Coalition stay?

Shafaq News/ A spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Sabah Al-Numan, confirmed that the timelines for the withdrawal of the Global Coalition forces from Iraq take into account the need for security forces. Therefore, the timelines are fixed and proceed according to the plan.

The situation, however, appears more complicated. Security experts assert that the region is facing a new crisis, with notable manifestations including ISIS activity in the deserts of Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor of Syria, risks of Israeli aircraft violating Iraqi airspace, the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Turkish forces in the Kurdistan Region, and the ongoing tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkiye, and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.

In an interview with Shafaq News, Al-Numan emphasized that the joint Iraqi-American committees, particularly the Iraqi security committees, reached a timeline for the coalition's withdrawal after several meetings in Baghdad and Washington. “these timelines are stable and were set after evaluating the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces and assessing the diminishing threat of ISIS.”

Al-Numan reassured that the Iraqi side of the border with Syria is "completely secure," listing measures taken, such as a concrete wall, sufficient border guard forces supported by Iraqi army units and Popular Mobilization Forces, along with technical, logistical, and sensor devices.

On the intelligence front, Iraq monitors developments within Syria and their potential impact on its national security, "even though the situation in Syria is internal." Al-Numan clarified, "The security agencies have an understanding of what is happening."

The governments of the United States and Iraq announced in a joint statement released in September 2024, the conclusion of the Global Coalition mission in Iraq, with a 12-month deadline, and no later than the end of September 2025. It shifted to " bilateral security partnerships in a manner that supports Iraqi forces and maintains pressure on ISIS."

The statement clarified that the announcement of the timeline for the end of the coalition's military mission came after ISIS's defeat in Iraq.

The statement also emphasized that Iraq remains a core member of the coalition, and to prevent ISIS's return from northeastern Syria, the coalition's mission in Syria would continue until September 2026.

Security expert Sarmad Al-Bayati noted that the discussions around the coalition's presence in Iraq "are not final." He explained in an interview with Shafaq News that while ISIS remains active in the deserts of Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor, it does not pose a direct threat to Iraq due to the strength of Iraq's defensive lines. “ISIS could still pose a risk to Syria, as it has limited activity in the desert.”

Al-Bayati also listed some of the essential tools Iraq uses to secure its border with Syria, including radar systems for detecting aircraft, and revealed that radar systems for detecting drones will arrive soon.

He pointed out the need for air defenses and "monitoring ISIS from the sky," noting that while Iraq possesses these tools, they are limited in scope. "What the coalition forces have, such as satellites, drones, and reconnaissance aircraft, are much more advanced than what Iraq has."

The security expert also highlighted that the threat from ISIS is primarily on the ground, while the air threat may come from Israeli aircraft, as "Iraq does not have air defenses capable of downing these aircraft."

Additionally, Al-Bayati stressed that the presence of the PKK and Turkish forces in the Kurdistan Region, as well as the ongoing conflict between the SDF, Turkiye, and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, contributes to the growing risk of a regional crisis.

It is worth noting that the "Inherent Resolve" coalition was established in 2014 with 87 partners, including 82 governments and five organizations, to assist partner forces in defeating ISIS and ensuring lasting security cooperation.

Currently, around 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq as part of the Global Coalition led by Washington since September 2014. These troops are stationed at three main sites: Ain Al-Asad base in Al-Anbar, Harir base in Erbil, and Victoria base near Baghdad International Airport. In addition to US forces, French, Australian, and British troops, as well as NATO forces, operate within the coalition in Iraq.

Former prime ministerial candidate, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, categorizes the US military presence in Iraq into three main categories, explaining their functions:

- Technicians and engineers responsible for the maintenance and operation of military equipment, especially F-16 fighter jets. "Their presence is crucial, as these planes are guided via satellites and require constant maintenance and armament."

- Trainers for military forces, whose presence, according to military leadership, is no longer necessary as Iraqi forces have gained high-level expertise.

- Combat soldiers, whose presence in any country undermines its sovereignty. "This is unacceptable. We are a sovereign nation and reject the military presence of any country on Iraqi soil," Allawi concluded.