Nuclear talks fizzle: Iran-US hopes fade

Shafaq News/ Hopes for a breakthrough in the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and the United States appear to be fading, as momentum from earlier rounds has cooled and the latest session ended with only modest progress. While some diplomats speak of cautious optimism, Iranian officials and analysts are expressing growing frustration, pointing to what they see as Washington’s increasingly rigid demands.

The fifth round of indirect negotiations, hosted by Oman at its embassy in Rome, wrapped up on Friday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the meeting as “the most professional,” highlighting a “clearer understanding from the American side of the Iranian position.” Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, acknowledged progress, though he stopped short of calling it decisive. A date for the next round has yet to be announced.

These Muscat-based talks—conducted through intermediaries—have emerged as one of the last surviving diplomatic backchannels between Tehran and Washington. Their importance has only grown since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark agreement that once placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activity. That deal, signed under President Barack Obama, imposed a cap of 3.67% on uranium enrichment and limited Iran’s stockpile to 300 kilograms. But following the US withdrawal under President Donald Trump in 2018, Iran has ramped up its enrichment levels to 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade.

Fading Hope

Inside Iran, there is a growing sense that the talks are drifting off course. Saeed Sharoudi, a Tehran-based expert on Iranian affairs, noted a clear shift in the mood of Iran’s negotiating team. “The enthusiasm we saw in the early rounds has worn off,” Sharoudi explained to Shafaq News, adding that the team feels Washington’s stance contradicts earlier claims of readiness for a fair deal that would lift sanctions.

That shift, according to Sharoudi, is rooted in Washington’s continued imposition of new sanctions during the negotiations. “The United States, it seems, wants a one-sided agreement,” he remarked, where Iran halts its nuclear activity while sanctions remain untouched.

More than 1,500 US sanctions have been reimposed on Iran since 2018, targeting banking, shipping, and the energy sector. The pressure caused Iran’s economy to contract sharply, shrinking by over 6% immediately after the US exit from the JCPOA. Although there was some recovery in 2023 due to deepening trade ties with China and Russia, Iran’s access to global financial markets remains limited, fueling domestic discontent.

Sharoudi added that Washington’s position appears aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear ambitions altogether. “The demand to reduce uranium enrichment to zero is something Tehran cannot agree to,” he explained. For Iran, such a step would incapacitate its nuclear infrastructure. “Without enriched uranium, the facilities would effectively shut down,” he said, warning that the consequences would be far-reaching.

There is growing skepticism within the Iranian political class that the US genuinely wants a solution. “Iran is beginning to understand that the US is not genuinely seeking a solution to the nuclear file,” Sharoudi observed. Instead, he believes Washington’s promises to lift sanctions and welcome Western companies mask deeper intentions to undermine the entire program.

Race Against Time

Across the Atlantic, time is shaping up to be a critical factor, especially for the White House. Haitham al-Hiti, Professor of Political Science at the University of Exeter in the UK, believes the clock is ticking more loudly in Washington than in Tehran. “The timing will settle everything,” he remarked to Shafaq News, noting that the US administration is working on a faster timeline than Iran’s.

For President Donald Trump, speed is of the essence. “Trump does not want two years of his administration to pass without resolving these issues,” al-Hiti said, pointing to the pressure of looming elections. “Failure to reach a deal could weaken Trump in Congress and limit his ability to make major decisions,” he added. “He’s unlikely to let a full year go by without taking decisive steps.”

With Republicans currently holding the House and Democrats maintaining a narrow edge in the Senate, the midterm elections in November 2026 could dramatically shift power dynamics. Trump, who returned to office in January 2025, has made a new Iran deal one of his foreign policy priorities—but divisions within his administration over how far to go remain unresolved.

That sense of urgency, al-Hiti noted, is something Tehran is trying to exploit. “The Iranians are playing on this matter,” he said. “They give promises, delay responses, and try to stretch the talks over two years, hoping the Democrats will return to Congress and the Senate, weakening Trump’s hand.”

Two rounds left?

Aqil Abbas, an expert in US political affairs, pointed to a narrowing window for action. “Trump spoke of a negotiation ceiling of about two months,” Abbas mentioned in comments to Shafaq News. “I believe there may be only two sessions remaining before a decision must be made.”

Abbas contrasted this approach with past strategies. “Trump and the Europeans want to avoid the drawn-out process of previous talks, which lasted nearly a year and a half without results,” he explained. Europe appears aligned with Trump’s push for a faster resolution. A recent EU statement urged an “urgent restoration of full JCPOA compliance” while recognizing that “adaptations may be required in light of new realities.”

The US president, Abbas noted, is seeking to secure a result quickly, leaving time to measure its effectiveness. “An agreement is expected. What remains is the form in which it will be presented.”

Concessions on the table

While both sides remain tight-lipped about specifics, Abbas predicted that any deal will likely depend on Iranian compromises, especially on uranium enrichment. “The agreement will likely involve major Iranian concessions on enrichment,” he assessed. In exchange, the US may offer broad economic relief—possibly a full lifting of sanctions.

He emphasized the stakes: both sides, he believes, are trying to avoid conflict. “The most important thing is that both sides steer clear of military options or war. And that is a positive outcome.”