Middle East on edge: Israel, Yemen, and Iraq in a high-stakes game
Shafaq News/ The region teeters on the brink of broader conflict following a drone strike on Tel Aviv, the first such attack from Yemen, and an Israeli assault on Hodeidah, the first by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government against the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement.
Global Shifts: Israel's War Crimes and US Political Turmoil
Israel has been in its longest war in history, now in its tenth month, with no resolution in sight for its conflict in Gaza. International legal experts have deemed the ongoing conflict akin to war crimes, further straining Israel's global standing. A recent International Court of Justice ruling declared Israel's actions in the Occupied West Bank and Gaza tantamount to a war crime, demanding the cessation of settlements and compensation payments. Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, described the ruling as significant and alarming, surpassing Israel's worst fears.
These developments coincide with major upheavals in US politics. President Joe Biden unexpectedly announced he would not seek a second term, as Washington faces extraordinary internal, regional, and international challenges. These include the potential return of Republicans to the White House, led by Donald Trump, who recently survived an assassination attempt, the "cold war" with China, near-direct confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine war, and the escalating Gaza conflict threatening to become a broader regional war involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi resistance factions.
Ten months of US mediation efforts have failed to halt the Gaza war, leaving the United States deeply entangled in the region's conflicts. The US mission, dubbed "Prosperity Guardian" in the Red Sea, has not succeeded in preventing Yemeni attacks on Israeli and commercial vessels. Earlier in 2023, Biden attempted to pressure Netanyahu over controversial judicial reforms in Israel that sparked widespread protests. Ironically, Biden is now the one leaving the White House, while Netanyahu, despite his brutal Gaza campaign tarnishing Washington's global reputation, was honored as a guest in the US Congress, delivering a speech celebrating his political "victory" on the international stage.
Iraq: A Crucial Player in Middle East Tensions
The equation in the region now extends beyond "Hodeidah for Tel Aviv." Iraq is also at the heart of these escalating tensions. Observers note that the future of the US presence in Iraq may become a heated issue again, despite the start of a fourth round of joint security dialogue sessions between Iraq and the United States in Washington to discuss the "future of the International Coalition mission and enhance security cooperation."
Akram al-Kaabi, the Secretary-General of the Iraqi Harakat al-Nujaba, described the Israeli attack on the Yemeni port as an act that "will not go unanswered by the free people of the world and the Axis Of Resistance. The pace of operations carried out by the Islamic resistance in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq will expand."
In addition, the Iraqi "Ansarallah al-Awfiya" movement has announced the resumption of targeting US forces in Iraq after a drone attack on the Ain al-Asad base in Al-Anbar. This, according to observers, marked the end of the informal truce that had been in place in Iraq since early February.
The movement stated that it had given a four-month deadline "to halt operations against the Americans in Iraq, to give the Iraqi government the opportunity to negotiate with the US administration to withdraw its occupying forces. However, the occupation is stalling and procrastinating in its departure, contrary to the demands of the Iraqi government, parliament, and people."
Saudi Arabia's High-Stakes Gamble in Regional Conflicts
Observers also fear that the "Hodeidah for Tel Aviv" equation could draw other countries into the conflict. In this context, they recall the threat made by Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi against Saudi Arabia last week, warning it against involvement in the US-British war against him. The group hinted at targeting strategic and military sites within Saudi Arabia.
Suspicion quickly arose about the possibility that the Israeli Air Force may have benefited from access through Saudi airspace or coordinated with Riyadh before striking oil and electricity facilities in Hodeidah. In response, Riyadh issued a series of denials, reflecting the kingdom's anxiety about the potential escalation of conflict within its borders.
The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies warned that the deterioration in the Yemeni front could "indirectly affect the stability of Gulf states and the region, threaten future normalization prospects with Saudi Arabia, and undermine Israel's ability to rally the region against the Houthis. It also cautions that the ongoing situation could ignite a broader regional conflict and threaten the reconciliation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, especially as the Houthis have extended their cooperation against Israel with Iraqi factions. The Institute does not rule out the possibility of the Houthis following through on their threats to target Saudi Arabia for its cooperation with Israel against Hamas."
The Biden administration has struggled to manage the conflict in Gaza, failing to secure a ceasefire or contain its ramifications, raising questions about the risks of the coming period on a regional scale.
The same Israeli Institute notes that despite US military efforts in the Gulf region in recent months aimed at curtailing the Houthis' capabilities, the Houthis have accumulated significant experience from their war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen and have the ability to manufacture weapons independently with Iranian support. This explains their continued ability to launch attacks against Israel and Western targets.
Fear of Escalation: The Growing Threat of a Regional War
The risks posed by "Yemeni fire" have taken on a more alarming dimension. The Wall Street Journal highlighted warnings from the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Russia is attempting to provide the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles in retaliation for US support for Ukraine, which has enabled Ukraine to carry out significant strikes within Russia, including with more advanced American weaponry.
There are clear signs of US efforts to contain the situation faltering, not only as the Israeli Institute points out but also as recently revealed in a secret message from the US Central Command in the Middle East to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The message warned that US military operations in the region have "failed" to deter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and that a broader approach is needed.
Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has declared a new phase in the conflict, announcing that the drone strike on Tel Aviv marks the "beginning of the fifth phase" of escalation and a new equation that will continue. He stated that the "threat was unexpected and unfamiliar in the Israeli reality outside of Palestine," emphasizing that this is the first time Tel Aviv has been targeted from outside Palestine in the current war and affirming that "the threat against Tel Aviv will continue."
Allies Rally: Iran and Hezbollah Stand with the Houthis
Tehran, transitioning between eras with the advent of President Masoud Pezeshkian, is grappling with regional tensions that could jeopardize the prospects for his presidency, according to analysts. Should these tensions escalate, they might bolster the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's role in reshaping Iran's foreign policy, especially in relation to the Gaza conflict.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a strongly-worded warning following the attack on Hodeidah, cautioning that escalating tensions and broadening conflict in the region could result from "dangerous Israeli actions." The ministry stated that calm will not be restored as long as Israeli attacks on Palestine, particularly Gaza, persist. It also held Israel and its allies, especially the United States, responsible for the serious consequences of the attacks in Yemen.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked on Saturday that the assault on Hodeidah in western Yemen was a "direct response" to a recent Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv, considering it a "message to Israel's adversaries."
In response, Hezbollah condemned the Israeli actions as a "reckless step," signaling a new and perilous phase of confrontation with significant regional repercussions. The group affirmed its solidarity with the Yemeni people in defending their sovereignty and position alongside Palestine, highlighting the crucial role of regional support fronts in upholding the Palestinian cause. Hezbollah expressed confidence in Yemen's leadership to take decisive actions to counter the Israeli threat and its international and regional allies.
