Iraqi PM Al-Sudani's visit to Iran: What's behind the scenes?
Shafaq News/ Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's recent visit to Tehran marks a “pivotal” moment in Iraq's relations with Iran. Amid growing regional and international tensions, particularly between Washington and Tehran, the visit, which addressed critical issues like Syria’s future and Iraq’s armed factions, has stirred varied reactions.
Details of the Visit
On January 8, 2024, Al-Sudani visited Tehran for a one-day trip at the invitation of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, holding meetings with Iranian leaders to strengthen bilateral relations and discuss several shared issues, including regional security.
At a joint press conference with Pezeshkian, Al-Sudani reiterated Iraq's respect for the Syrian people's will and support for "any political framework they choose," while urging a "comprehensive political solution for Syria." He underscored Baghdad's commitment to “balanced” regional and international relations, announcing plans to host an international conference to promote stability.
President Pezeshkian, in turn, highlighted shared concerns over Syria's escalating situation, warning that "the potential reactivation of terrorist cells remains a pressing concern for both Tehran and Baghdad." He stressed that “both countries are aligned in emphasizing the importance of preserving Syria's territorial integrity and advocating for the withdrawal of Israeli forces.”
In a separate meeting, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei underscored the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) as "an essential pillar of Iraq's strength" and condemned the presence of US forces in Iraq, calling it "illegal and contrary to the interests of the Iraqi people and government."
Shafaq News sources revealed that Al-Sudani and Khamenei agreed to protect the PMF from any pressure to disband it, stressing the importance of “formal mechanisms to ensure weapons are under state control, thereby reinforcing the rule of law and achieving internal stability.”
A Strategic Step in Iraq-Iran Relations
Independent politician Aed Al-Hilali described Al-Sudani’s visit to Iran as “a move at a pivotal moment for the region.” Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, he noted that the visit aimed to strengthen ties across political, economic, and cultural dimensions. “This visit represents a significant strategic step in enhancing bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran,” he said, adding that Iraq seeks stronger cooperation with its neighbors to promote regional stability and serve the people.
During the visit, Al-Sudani engaged with senior Iranian officials to explore avenues for closer collaboration. Al-Hilali stated that discussions focused on bolstering trade, energy, and security ties while fostering political coordination to support sustainable development, he emphasized, adding that the dialogue with the Iranian president extended to international and regional concerns, including developments in Syria and Gaza.
Bilateral relations between the two countries, Al-Hilali noted, hold a vital role in fostering regional security and benefiting both peoples. He pointed out that the discussions underscored a collective commitment to facing regional conflicts, security crises, and terrorist threats. “The emphasis on solidarity between Iraq and Iran in addressing these challenges reflects a shared determination to bolster the region’s security and stability,” he remarked, underlining the importance of such cooperation amid the “complex” international circumstances impacting the Middle East.
Unannounced Goals
The PM’s trip to Iran, though brief, carried "unannounced top-tier goals" that overshadowed the publicly stated objectives, according to political science professor Essam Al-Faili.
Speaking to our agency, Al-Faili remarked, "Official statements typically focus on traditional themes, like strengthening relationships and addressing specific issues, but the underlying messages are often far more significant."
Al-Faili noted that Al-Sudani’s trip conveyed "a clear message from Iraq to Iran about the nature of Iraqi factions, which remain a critical factor in Baghdad’s future relations with Washington.” He highlighted the challenge these factions pose, particularly to the United States, as President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a revamped Middle East strategy upon formally assuming office.
Iraq’s armed factions are split into two primary groups. The first operates under the PMF, directly linked to the Prime Minister, while the second self-identifies as "resistance factions" that occasionally target US interests in Iraq and Israeli interests in the Palestinian territories.
Referring to Trump’s recent communications with Al-Sudani, Al-Faili emphasized, "One of the security challenges for the US is dealing with Iraqi armed factions that have attacked US forces not only in Iraq but also in Syria and Jordan. These groups are seen as a direct threat to US national security, prompting messages to Iraq, which in turn conveyed them to Iran."
Our sources previously revealed that Trump’s message to Al-Sudani stressed “the need for Iraq to curb the proliferation of weapons held by non-state actors, pressure Baghdad to limit the influence of Iranian-backed groups operating within Iraq, and advocate for Iraq’s non-intervention in Syrian affairs while supporting the formation of a new Syrian government post-Assad.”
Iran’s perspective, however, reflects a different emphasis. Khamenei underscored the importance of the PMF as a “robust institution,” describing it as a "Shiite ideological force." Yet, Al-Faili pointed out that the fatwa issued by Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, was inclusive of all Iraqis, rather than sect-specific.
Khamenei’s remarks during the discussions extended to resistance forces in Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza, but conspicuously avoided mentioning Iraq’s resistance factions. This, Al-Faili explained, signals "a potential shift in Iranian strategy, reassessing the regional landscape and seeking diplomatic resolutions with the US in the coming period, while distancing itself from any strike on its nuclear program.”
PMF: A Matter for Iraq Alone
In response to Khamenei's recent speech, Ahmed Al-Yasiri, head of the Arab Australian Center for Strategic Studies, told Shafaq News that "the speech reflects Khamenei's longstanding position on expelling American forces, confronting Israel, and accusing Iran's adversaries of seeking to occupy the region, among other points." Al-Yasiri added, "The issue of the PMF and its factions is an internal matter for Iraq. Iran cannot dictate a specific path for Iraq."
He further noted, "Iran is reeling from setbacks in Syria, creating internal unease. With regional influence shrinking and the potential return of Trump, Iran faces increasing challenges. Iraq, as Iran's economic lifeline, remains crucial to Tehran’s regional strategy, which is why Iran seeks to preserve the current system."
Notably, a source told Shafaq News last week that Iran's Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani informed Al-Sudani that “Iran would not object to decisions regarding the future of armed factions in Iraq.”
Qaani's statements came before Iraq's discussions on integrating armed factions into the country's security forces, with preliminary approval granted for the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Movement. “Efforts to include additional factions into the security framework are also in progress,” according to our sources. “The integration process requires factions to comply with directives from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces (PM Al-Sudani).”
The integration efforts come amid increased international pressure. During a Dec. 13 visit to Baghdad, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly urged Al-Sudani to take “strict measures” against armed factions. A US official told CNN that the requests were “broad in scope,” highlighting growing American concerns about the factions’ influence.
Iraq Stands With Iran
Al-Sudani's journey to Tehran has drawn sharp attention, “particularly in light of the intensifying military and diplomatic strains between the US and Iran, especially under Trump and the Iranian regime,” prominent Iraqi politician Mithal Al-Alusi told our agency.
Further emphasizing the visit’s ramifications, Al-Alusi remarked, "The PM's visit sends a dangerous signal to Israel, affirming that Iraq stands with Iran and supports its actions. Iraqi factions that targeted Israel are backed by the government, even though official diplomatic statements deny and reject this."
He concluded with a warning, "The visit will have significant and dangerous consequences, making Iraq a target for both the US and Israel."