Iraq's shuttle diplomacy: Securing stability amid Syria's tumultuous crisis
Shafaq News/ Iraq's high-level shuttle diplomacy has intensified, positioning the country as a pivotal player in the region’s shifting dynamics. Amid rising security concerns, especially from Syria’s unrest, Iraq is strengthening ties with neighboring countries and global powers to safeguard its stability and shape a collective approach to the region's future.
Intense Diplomatic Visits
Over three days, Iraq and its neighboring countries witnessed a series of high-level diplomatic visits. The sequence began on December 10 with US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla traveling to Syria, followed by a stop in Baghdad for a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. Shortly after, Al-Sudani flew to Jordan to meet with King Abdullah II. After bidding farewell to Al-Sudani, King Abdullah swiftly took off for the UAE to meet with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed.
Upon returning to Baghdad, Al-Sudani hosted a delegation from the US Department of State for further discussions. He then received a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, followed by a meeting with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and his accompanying team. Later, the PM took a call from British Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Meanwhile, UN envoy Mohamed Al-Hassan met with Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, Iraq’s foremost Shia cleric. Al-Sudani then reached out to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The diplomatic cycle concluded with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting Turkiye before arriving in Baghdad for talks with Al-Sudani.
In this regard, Fadi Al-Shammari, Political Advisor to Al-Sudani, told Shafaq News agency, "Iraq's shuttle diplomacy reflects intensive activity that strengthens its role as a central link among various regional parties. This comes amid rapid and critical developments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Syria, which shares a border with Iraq."
“Iraq has taken proactive political, security, and military measures to protect its national interests, while prioritizing the stability of neighboring countries and remaining aware of the Palestinian issue, as its people endure massacres by the Israeli war machine,” he added.
Moreover, Al-Shammari affirmed, "Through visits, Iraq aims to create a shared regional and international vision for Syria, supporting its stability and encouraging the establishment of a democratic political system that respects social diversity and the rights of all Syrians."
He pointed out, “Amid the current regional circumstances, the Iraqi government seeks to assert its diplomatic presence in the region and enhance the balance among various powers, contributing to the overall stability of the region.”
"Iraq understands that Syria's revival and its role as a cornerstone for regional stability require genuine international cooperation, which Baghdad is working to foster through its ongoing diplomatic efforts,” he concluded.
Behind the Scenes
Dr. Munqith Dagher, the CEO and founder of the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS) research group, asserted that the recent and ongoing movements in the region are a direct result of the situation following the opposition's control in Syria. "Everyone is concerned about what is happening in Syria and the potential threat from extremist factions to Iraqi and regional security," he told Shafaq News.
He highlighted the significance of Al-Sudani’s visit to Jordan, noting that both Iraq and Jordan share a border with Syria. "Amid movements by terrorist groups in this area, along with concerns and intelligence reports about possible threats, caution and coordination are necessary… Actions should not be taken individually," Dagher emphasized.
Looking ahead, Dagher predicted, "In the coming days, the region will witness new alignments, agreements, and security arrangements, and perhaps even a new axis."
In turn, the Iraqi Centre for Political Thought offered insight into the ongoing diplomatic exchanges. "The visits are numerous and reciprocal, but each one has its own significance," it explained. The center pointed out that Al-Sudani’s swift visit to King Abdullah II is closely tied to regional developments and the possibility of Iraq playing a pivotal role in shaping an Arab response to the Syrian crisis. "Arab countries are increasingly aware that the collapse of Iran and the Al-Assad regime has created a significant vacuum in Syria. Therefore, they believe it is in their interest to fill this void, especially with other nations, such as Turkiye, Israel, and the US, also pursuing the same goal.”
The center also stressed the importance of Al-Sudani's communications with Saudi Crown Prince, which aim to craft a “unified” Arab approach and push for an Arab summit to establish initiatives. "Countries are awaiting the response from Syria's transitional government," it said.
Regarding the visit of the German defense minister, the center described it as a step toward solidifying the future course of cooperation with the Global Coalition. It also highlighted ongoing negotiations to secure bilateral agreements between Iraq and Germany, as well as with other coalition members. "The German defense minister’s visit served to further this agenda, including discussions on a weapons deal for the Kurdistan region," the center added.
On the recent statements by State of Law Coalition Head Nouri al-Maliki and Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi al-Amiri, the center noted that the fall of Al-Assad "was a major shock to the Coordination Framework (CF) leaderships and forces." It pointed out that these groups now recognize the looming threat to Iraq, especially with Israel's focus on successive geographical wars. "They are deeply concerned about Iraq's future," the center said.
This concern is compounded by "Israeli threats to target Iraq, the 'delayed strike,' and the international actions surrounding Iraq, including those from the US and the UN, alongside calls for political system reform." Consequently, "the CF leaderships believe Iraq is moving toward change," it concluded.
Earlier, Al-Maliki stated that "Iraq and its security forces, in all their forms, are capable of facing challenges and the potential movements of ISIS and the Baath Party in light of the developments in the region." He also accused Turkiye of contributing to the fall of Al-Assad's regime in Syria. Meanwhile, al-Amiri described the events in Syria as "a Zionist-Turkish project with American approval," and claimed that "the Turks and the Zionists are two sides of the same coin," calling the situation in Syria a "stain on the Turkish conscience."
Iraq in the Equation
Political analyst Yassin Aziz warned that the fall of al-Assad's regime in Syria marks not the end, but a critical shift in the region’s tumultuous political landscape. "What happened in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime will not be the final phase of the events shaking the region, which are expected to redraw its political map," Aziz told our agency.
Aziz stressed that Iraq is inevitably part of this redefined equation. "Iraq will not be outside this equation, facing a real threat to its security and stability if the state fails to manage its position through its institutions and avoid being drawn into a targeted regional project."
He further highlighted that recent diplomatic movements by the Iraqi PM, particularly after the message delivered to Iraq's top religious authority by the UN Envoy, were designed to shield Iraq from emerging threats. "The visits and movements of Al-Sudani aim to avert any danger to Iraq," Aziz noted, adding that a unified Arab response is crucial to halt Israeli aggressions on Syrian territory following Al-Assad's downfall.
For his part, Dr. Ruben Salam, a political researcher, also emphasized Iraq’s delicate position in this shifting geopolitical environment. "Iraq, represented by Al-Sudani, is trying to protect Iraq from the fires burning in the region, especially before Donald Trump officially takes office as US president on January 25, 2025," Salam explained.
Moreover, Salam speculated that Trump’s first actions in office would be focused on increasing pressure on Iran. "Predictions suggest that Trump will sign 25 decisions on his first day, and these initial decisions will not include Iraq but are aimed at applying more pressure on the Iranian regime. However, by the second week, these decisions will target Iraqi funds used to finance militia activities and support the 'Resistance Front.' Therefore, it is expected that Iraqi funds will be restricted, and Iraq may return to the Oil-for-Food Program," Salam said.
The political researcher concluded with a stark warning for Iraq's future. "Iraq faces three difficult options: increased pressure on the Central Bank of Iraq, along with threats from ISIS and Israel."
