Iraq's 2025 election drama: Political showdown over law and seat expansion

Shafaq News/ Iraq is gearing up for its highly anticipated legislative elections by October 2025, but the road ahead is clouded by fierce debates over the Election Law and the possibility of expanding parliamentary seats, sparked by the country's recent census, which revealed a significant population increase. Political factions are pushing for changes that align with their interests, making consensus difficult and adding complexity to an already contentious process.

Evolution of Iraq’s Electoral Laws

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, Iraq has changed its electoral framework, enacting six election laws to address the country’s evolving political landscape. Initially, during the transitional phase, Iraq operated as a single electoral district with a closed-list system.

In 2005, Election Law No. 16 introduced a new system based on electoral quotient calculations, dividing the country into 18 electoral districts aligned with its provinces. This system remained in place until 2010 when partial open-list voting was introduced.

Further reforms came in 2014 with the adoption of the Sainte-Laguë method, using a 1.7 divisor formula, which was later adjusted to 1.9 in 2018. This method, introduced in 1912 by French mathematician André Sainte-Laguë, distributes votes across electoral seats in multi-member districts, seeking to minimize discrepancies between votes and seat allocation.

The October 2019 protests, driven by widespread public dissatisfaction with corruption and political stagnation, led to another major shift in 2020. The new law replaced proportional representation with a majoritarian system, dividing each province into multiple electoral districts. This change allowed independent candidates to secure 70 out of 329 parliamentary seats in the 2021 elections, while traditional parties struggled to achieve a majority.

On March 27, 2023, the Iraqi parliament approved an amendment to the parliamentary elections law, reverting to the pre-2019 system. This decision has drawn sharp criticism from independent and smaller political parties, who argue that it favors larger political blocs and undermines the progress made since the protests.

Proposed Amendments and Ongoing Discussions

Several proposals for further electoral reforms are currently under discussion, including:

- Reinstating the multi-district system used in the 2021 elections.

- Dividing densely populated provinces into two electoral districts to ensure fairer representation.

- Implementing a 20–80% electoral district model to reduce political influence and limit the role of financial power in election outcomes.

These proposals, according to analysts, aim to address concerns about fairness and representation while balancing the interests of various political factions.

Election Law in the Hands of Temple Gods?

Amending Iraq's Election Law, a key demand of the State of Law Coalition (SLC) led by led by Nouri al-Maliki, currently faces considerable obstacles as divisions between major political blocs intensify. While larger parties seek to consolidate their influence, independent and smaller factions continue to push for greater representation and accountability.

Each faction, according to MPs, is determined to shape the law in a way that aligns with its own interests, making consensus elusive. MP Haitham Al-Fahd described the situation as being in the hands of the political elite, or what he called the “temple gods.”

“The amendment has not been officially proposed in parliament or its specialized committees so far,” he told Shafaq News Agency, adding, “What is happening regarding the amendment is merely behind-the-scenes discussions among political leaders.” While Al-Fahd expected the amendment to move forward soon, he acknowledged, “It will certainly be passed by some leaders according to their party and personal interests.”

The variety of viewpoints among political blocs was underscored by SLC spokesman MP Aqil Al-Fatlawi, who highlighted the range of proposals on the table. “Some favor maintaining a single electoral district, others propose two districts per province, while for Baghdad, four districts evenly distributed between Karkh and Rusafa are suggested,” he explained to our agency.

Al-Fatlawi stressed that the final decision would hinge on political agreements, with the State of Law’s preference being a move toward multiple districts—but not to the extent seen in the 2021 elections. “This proposal has been discussed with political partners, and negotiations are ongoing to reach a mutually accepted formula, which will serve as the solution,” he said.

The underlying aim, according to Al-Fatlawi, is to restore balance and encourage political participation. “This approach aims to send a message of goodwill to those outside the political process, encouraging their return,” he remarked, implicitly referencing Al-Sadr’s ongoing refusal to engage in discussions over the matter.

At the same time, Jawad Al-Yasari, Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Regions and Governorates, noted that “many proposals exist among political blocs and parties to amend the Election Law, particularly revising the Sainte-Laguë system, but no agreement has been reached, and no formal proposal has been submitted yet,” he told Shafaq News.

Among the key proposals is one requiring ministers and executive officials to take mandatory leave if they intend to run for parliament. Another suggestion, Al-Yasari affirmed, would require the Prime Minister and ministers to resign if they wish to participate in the elections, though some proposals advocate for exempting the PM from this requirement.

Meanwhile, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), as spokesperson Jumana Al-Ghalai confirmed to Shafaq News, continues to administer parliamentary elections under the amended Parliamentary and Provincial Councils Election Law No. 12 of 2018, which incorporates a modified Sainte-Laguë formula.

Will Census Affect MPs Number?

As Iraq’s 2024 census records a population exceeding 45 million, the first such count since 1997, speculation has surged over whether this would trigger a rise in the number of parliamentary seats, currently set at 329.

Article 49 of the constitution allows for a potential increase, stipulating that each MP represents 100,000 citizens. This formula could, in theory, push the number of seats to as high as 600. However, the path to such a change isn’t clear-cut. In 2005, Iraq’s first parliamentary elections resulted in 275 MPs, and this number rose to 329 despite the absence of a complete national census.

While some see the new census as a reason to increase the seats, others, like Fadel al-Gharawi, head of the Strategic Human Rights Center, argue against this move. "The announced population in the 2024 census cannot be used to change the number of MPs from 329 to 453, as it was a population count rather than a comprehensive census as required by the constitution," he pointed out. Instead, the expert proposed amending Article 49 to remove the “one MP per 100,000 people” clause and cap the number of seats at 329. Al-Gharawi even suggested holding a referendum on the issue alongside the next parliamentary elections to streamline the process and reduce the financial burden.

The electoral commission has made it clear that the final decision rests in the hands of lawmakers. Al-Ghalai affirmed the IHEC’s stance on adhering to the current law, which continues to set the seat total at 329.

On the ground, MP Al-Fatlawi dismissed any immediate changes to the parliamentary structure. "The government has yet to determine the number of Iraqis living abroad, and the Ministry of Planning has not completed all census-related procedures. Therefore, there will be no increase in the number of MPs," he explained, adding that the process is far from complete.