Iraq prepares for pivotal census: hopes for economic reform and political challenges

Shafaq News/ Iraq is set to conduct its first nationwide census in over three decades on November 21-22, a long-awaited effort expected to reshape the country’s economic policies and social planning. While experts emphasize the transformative potential of accurate demographic data, potential political tensions and logistical hurdles cast a shadow over the landmark initiative.

Economic Insight

Iraq's upcoming population census is expected to provide precise data on key economic indicators, such as unemployment, poverty, and housing needs, according to economic expert Ahmed Abed Rabbo.

Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Abed Rabbo pointed out that "previous figures from the Ministry of Planning were estimations, but the census will offer accurate and reliable statistics."

He noted that the data could serve as “a foundation for informed decision-making, enabling policymakers to craft realistic budgets, strategies, and development plans based on factual data.”

"The census has the potential to reshape Iraq’s economy and revamp its investment and service map significantly," Abed Rabbo added.

International economics professor Nawar Saad described the census as "a pivotal step with potential long-term economic and social impacts." Saad told Shafaq News that the initiative transcends mere population counting, as it will detail the demographics, including age distribution, residency patterns, and education levels. These insights, he argued, “will lay the groundwork for sustainable development plans that address real needs, thereby bolstering the national economy.”

Saad highlighted several potential benefits, such as enabling fair resource distribution among provinces, improving urban planning, and enhancing public services.

“The census could also support private sector growth and reduce reliance on the public sector, aligning with the government’s 2024-2028 development strategy. “

However, Saad cautioned about potential risks. "If the data is not properly utilized, the census could reveal critical issues like high unemployment or inadequate infrastructure, potentially exacerbating social tensions if these problems are not addressed swiftly and effectively," he warned. He also stressed that “without meticulous post-census planning, Iraq might remain reliant on imprecise estimates, undermining development prospects.”

Saad concluded, "The success of the census hinges on Iraq's ability to leverage its findings effectively to design inclusive economic and social policies. If done correctly, it could mark a turning point for sustainable development and social equity. Otherwise, it risks becoming yet another missed opportunity."

Despite the census’s importance, its success depends on maximizing its outcomes, particularly in navigating the challenges posed by Iraq's political landscape.

Political Will Key

Economic expert Dhiaa Al-Mohsen believes that Iraq's challenges extend beyond the outcomes of the population census, hinging instead on the political leadership’s readiness to address systemic issues.

"The census results alone won’t change the current situation. The real issue lies in the political class's willingness to end the pervasive disarray, particularly in the stagnant economic sector." Al-Mohsen told Shafaq News.

Al-Mohsen highlighted that the census serves as a “precursor,” offering indicators to guide the government in developing forward-looking economic and social policies. "The data collected on census day will help identify workforce strength and employment patterns to benefit the national economy," he explained.

He added that the census will also provide policymakers with insights into education levels and geographic distribution, allowing for targeted economic strategies that could drive substantial growth.

"The hope," Al-Mohsen concluded, "is that the government will take the census results seriously and use them to effect meaningful change in Iraq. Without this commitment, even the most accurate data will fail to deliver the desired impact."

Beyond political readiness, ensuring the census's success also hinges on meticulous logistical planning.

Census Logistics

Iraq’s last nationwide census was conducted in 1987, with all provinces participating. A follow-up census in 1997 excluded the Kurdistan Region. Since then, Iraq has relied on unofficial estimates, with the Ministry of Planning placing the population at over 42 million in 2022.

Delays in conducting a new census stemmed from fears of politicization, particularly in disputed areas like Kirkuk, where ethnic tensions between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen are heightened by its significant oil resources. Concerns persist that the census could alter the balance of power by revealing demographic realities.

To ensure smooth implementation, Iraq’s High-Security Committee for the Census declared a state of high alert across military and security units and announced a curfew. Interior Ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Muqdad Miri stated that the curfew will take effect at midnight on November 19 and continue until midnight on November 21, extending to the Kurdistan Region.

The curfew will restrict the movement of people, vehicles, and trains across provinces, districts, and rural areas, except for humanitarian emergencies and pressing security or natural circumstances.

Exceptions include statistics departments, enumerators, administrative officials, journalists accredited by the Communications and Media Commission, and healthcare workers, who will remain on duty at hospitals during the census days.