Iraq: Coalition troops withdrawal plan faces headwinds amid regional turmoil

Shafaq News/ The timeline for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq remains uncertain amid ongoing political and security challenges in the region. Analysts have expressed concerns about the feasibility of meeting the stated deadlines given the complex geopolitical landscape.

Major Questions, Various Factors

"These deadlines are not set in stone but rather represent decisions that can be postponed," said Haitham Al-Luhaybi, a US-based political analyst. "The major question is whether these decisions will be implemented, which depends on a variety of factors, including the formation of the next Iraqi government and the political situation both Iraq and the Middle East."

Al-Luhaybi explained to Shafaq News that the US-Iraq relations are key to determining the withdrawal process, stating, "the implementation of the withdrawal agreement depends on the relationship between Iraq and the United States, which is currently under a Democratic administration. We do not know who will govern the White House in the coming years and whether their approach will align with the current direction of withdrawal, especially in light of the various political variables."

Within Iraq, the analyst pointed to the complex relations between Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish forces as a potential stumbling block. "The internal Iraqi situation and the relationship between the Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish parties raise questions about whether the current balance will remain or change, and whether [Prime Minister] al-Sudani will remain in power or if there will be splits and confrontations, especially in light of the problems within the ruling Coordination Framework," he said.

Security concerns, including the threat posed by ISIS and other groups, also cast doubt on the withdrawal timeline. "Will the threats of ISIS and militias in Iraq end? And what about the impact of the Israeli-Iranian conflict on Iraq?"

Al-Luhaybi asked, "all of the above factors are what really determine how will the foreign forces withdraw, not the formal agreements that are made under normal conditions with relatively internal and regional security. Therefore, it is unlikely that the decision will be implemented but will be postponed and extended again in light of the current circumstances in Iraq and the region."

Is Iraq ready?

A member of Iraq's parliamentary Security and Defense Committee has expressed confidence in the country's security situation, which he said paves the road for a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.

Ali Naeem al-Bandawi, a member of the committee, said that "except for the Turkish violations, which are due to political issues and agreements, Iraq's border security is stable. But in general, Iraqi forces are deployed along the borders of neighboring countries and inside the governorate."

"The remnants of ISIS have been reduced to just a few gangs, and Iraqi forces are pursuing them in their hideouts. There were concerns about camps containing terrorists and their families, but the military leadership assured us that there is complete control over the borders, and the necessary precautions and measures have been taken."

Despite the positive assessments, al-Bandawi emphasized the need for Iraq to acquire more advanced weapons, air defense systems, and new generation aircraft. "This depends on Iraq's purchasing power as well as the response of manufacturing countries to Iraq's requests," he said.

New Defense Strategy

Ali al-Muammari, a security expert, highlighted the necessity of arming Iraqi forces with sophisticated artillery systems and training them in urban warfare and counter-insurgency tactics. "The Iraqi Armed Forces need to be equipped with modern, computer-guided artillery to ensure accurate targeting," he said. "Additionally, the Iraqi Air Force requires advanced aircraft and surveillance capabilities to gather intelligence on terrorist remnants and criminal gangs."

Sarmad al-Bayati, another security expert, expressed confidence that the international coalition would provide support to Iraq in case of any security emergencies. However, he emphasized the importance of Iraq taking full responsibility for its security. "The decision to withdraw the coalition forces is correct and aligns with the government's plan," he said. "The next step will be to consolidate state control over all weapons."

Ending US-Led Coalition Mission In Iraq

Last week, the United States formally announced that the coalition mission in Iraq will come to a close in September 2025, but emphasized that troops will remain in the country as part of an “evolution of the military mission in Iraq.”

“To be clear, the United States is not withdrawing from Iraq,” a senior administration official told reporters. “We are moving towards the type of productive long-term security relationship that the United States has with partners around the world.”

The US and Iraq have agreed “on a two-phase transition plan for operations in Iraq,” the official said. “In the first phase, we’ll be concluding the global coalition’s military mission in Iraq, the Combined Joint Task Force Inherent Resolve, and ending the presence of coalition forces in certain locations in Iraq as mutually determined.”

That phase will begin this month and finish by the end of September 2025.

The second phase involves an “understanding to allow the coalition to continue to support counter-ISIS operations in Syria from Iraq … until at least September 2026,” the official said.

“While ISIS is down, they are not out,” the official said. “ISIS continues to pose a real threat although diminished in Iraq and the wider region. Together the US, Iraq and the coalition remain committed to the defeat to defeat the core ISIS threat. We plan to continue focusing on that important task as we head into the future.”

The official did not specify the number of troops – US or coalition allies – that would be leaving Iraq. Reuters previously reported that “hundreds of troops” would be departing.

Analysts described the announcement as a “drawdown” rather than a total “withdrawal.” Norman Ricklefs, CEO of geopolitical consultancy firm NAMEA Group, said, “It will be conditions-based, so that hopefully we will not see a disaster as we saw when troops completely withdrew in 2011 and left behind a security vacuum that was filled by ISIS.”

"New Partnership"

The UK government has announced that it will end its military mission in Iraq as part of the broader Global Coalition against ISIS winding down operations.

"The UK will work closely with our Iraqi partners to develop an enduring bilateral relationship during the coming months, as part of the transition to a new security and defense partnership with Iraq," a UK Defense Ministry statement said.

"The RAF have also conducted more than 10,000 sorties striking more than 1400 targets, as well as providing critical surveillance and reconnaissance in support of ISF ground operations," the statement added.

The UK government praised the professionalism of UK personnel who have served in Iraq and acknowledged the bravery and effectiveness of the Iraqi Security Forces, Peshmerga, and the coalition's continued commitment in defeating ISIS.

With the territorial defeat of ISIS in Iraq, the UK will transition its support to a new bilateral relationship focused on long-term stability in the country. "Our commitment to the security of Iraq and the wider region remains unwavering," the statement concluded.

The United States and Iraq have announced that the US-led coalition in the country to fight ISIS will wind down by the end of 2025, but they left the door open to a prolonged military presence.

The joint announcement on Friday did not specify what the future of US troops in Iraq will be, with officials stressing that the move represents more of a “transition” than a “withdrawal”.

A senior official from US President Joe Biden’s administration who briefed reporters said the wind-down would involve two phases.

The first phase – expected to end in September 2025 – will include “ending the presence of coalition forces in certain locations in Iraq as mutually determined”, the official said.

The second phase would see the US continue to operate in Iraq in some capacity “at least through” 2026 to support ongoing anti-ISIS coalition efforts in Syria.

US-Iraq defense ties would then shift away from the coalition to “an expanded US-Iraqi bilateral security relationship”, the official said. They declined to say whether that shift would signal a full withdrawal of US troops.

“We’re not in a position right now to begin to either speculate or discuss exactly where we’re going to end up on all of it,” the official said.

The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of its so-called global “war on terror” in the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks, with a peak of 170,000 troops deployed by 2007.

Washington withdrew most US forces from Iraq by 2011.

However, the administration of US President Barack Obama again redeployed forces to the country in 2014, as ISIS overran large swaths of Iraq and Syria.

While ISIS continues to exist, the group lost control of its last pieces of territory in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019.

Then, in 2021, the Biden administration ended what it described as a US “combat mission” in Iraq, with the about 2,500 US troops in the country shifting to an “advisory role”.

Talks about further winding down troops began in January and included Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as well as top-ranking officials from both the Iraqi armed forces and the US-led coalition.

The continued presence of US troops in Iraq has been a political thorn for Sudani and has long been opposed by influential segments of the government.

Bases housing US soldiers have for years come under attack by Iran-aligned factions.

Those attacks increased in the early months of Israel’s war in Gaza, which began in October 2023 but have since reduced in frequency.