India–Pakistan on the Brink: 2025 escalation rekindles fears of open conflict

Shafaq News/ In South Asia, the specter of war has returned to haunt the fraught relationship between India and Pakistan following a sharp and unprecedented cross-border exchange—the most dangerous since the 1999 Kargil conflict.

Far from being a routine flare-up in Kashmir, the latest escalation involved airstrikes and missile attacks that penetrated deep into Pakistani territory, met with retaliatory fire, and reignited fears of a nuclear confrontation.

A Deep-Rooted Rivalry

Since gaining independence from Britain in 1947, India—predominantly Hindu with a parliamentary democracy—and Pakistan—founded as a Muslim-majority state—have remained locked in a deep geopolitical rivalry centered on the contested Kashmir region.

India pursued a policy of non-alignment with growing ties to the Soviet Union and later the West, while Pakistan aligned itself with the United States before strengthening strategic cooperation with China. The two countries have fought four full-scale wars and engaged in repeated border skirmishes, each deepening the divide and entrenching the hostility that defines their modern history.

The latest confrontation follows an April 22 attack in southern Kashmir’s Pahalgam region, which killed 26 Indian civilians. India blamed the TRF group—believed to be affiliated with Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba—for the assault, while Islamabad denied any involvement.

India responded on May 7 with missiles and airstrikes targeting what it described as militant camps inside Pakistani territory. Pakistan launched retaliatory shelling, resulting in civilian casualties and a rapid deterioration in diplomatic relations.

Flashpoints in History

The First Kashmir War (1947–1948)

The first India–Pakistan war erupted shortly after partition, when Pakistani tribal fighters and later regular troops entered the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir following its accession to India. The fighting lasted until late 1948, ending with a UN-brokered ceasefire and the 1949 Karachi Agreement, which established the Line of Control (LoC) as a de facto boundary. India retained control over Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, while Pakistan held western Kashmir, known today as Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. This division laid the groundwork for a prolonged and unresolved dispute.

The 1965 War

Tensions resurfaced in the 1960s, culminating in Pakistan’s covert Operation Gibraltar in August 1965, which aimed to incite rebellion in Indian-administered Kashmir. India launched a wide-scale counteroffensive across the international border. The ensuing 17-day war caused thousands of casualties with no clear victor. Under Soviet mediation, both sides signed the Tashkent Agreement in January 1966, returning to pre-war positions but escalating the arms race and realigning strategic alliances—Pakistan moved closer to China after feeling let down by the West, while India deepened ties with Moscow.

The 1971 War and Birth of Bangladesh

Unlike earlier wars centered on Kashmir, the 1971 conflict stemmed from internal unrest in East Pakistan. India supported the Bengali nationalist movement against political repression from West Pakistan. In December 1971, India launched a full military intervention, leading to Pakistan’s defeat and the creation of Bangladesh. The war, lasting just two weeks, resulted in heavy Pakistani losses and the capture of 90,000 soldiers.

The 1972 Shimla Agreement followed, reaffirming the LoC and promoting peaceful resolution, though tensions remained. India’s 1974 nuclear test and Pakistan’s eventual nuclear capability in 1998 marked a dangerous new chapter.

The 1999 Kargil Conflict

In mid-1999, Pakistani forces and militants infiltrated Indian positions in the Kargil sector. India launched a determined military campaign to reclaim the heights, resulting in intense combat and significant casualties. Under US pressure, Pakistan withdrew by July, restoring the status quo but triggering political fallout in Islamabad, including a military coup later that year.

Kargil marked the first armed conflict between two declared nuclear states and underlined the risks of miscalculation in a nuclearized environment.

Despite the absence of full-scale wars since Kargil, peace has remained elusive. Kashmir continues to witness insurgency and crackdowns, and the LoC remains a flashpoint.

Military and Nuclear Balance

India fields a military of 1.4 million personnel, while Pakistan maintains around 650,000 troops supported by paramilitary forces. Both countries possess roughly 170 nuclear warheads. India enjoys superiority in conventional forces and airpower, while Pakistan emphasizes missile capabilities and strategic alliances, particularly with China.

While military buildups continue, international actors often intervene to de-escalate tensions. Nonetheless, analysts warn that persistent hostilities and rising nationalism could tip the balance toward open conflict.

The 2025 Escalation: Context and Consequences

The most recent crisis erupted on April 22, 2025, when a deadly attack in the tourist town of Pahalgam, South Kashmir, targeted buses carrying Hindu pilgrims in the Besaran Valley, killing 26 and wounding 17. The group “Kashmir Resistance Front” (TRF), linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility.

The attack—the deadliest in years—prompted a swift reaction from New Delhi, which accused Pakistan of harboring militants. Islamabad denied involvement, but diplomatic tensions rose quickly.

Both countries expelled diplomats, downgraded official ties, and closed some border crossings.

In a historic move, India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, signaling its intent to fully exploit its water share. Pakistan responded by suspending the 1972 Shimla Agreement and closing its airspace to Indian aircraft.

As military alertness rises on both sides, international calls for dialogue and de-escalation have grown louder. Without such efforts, the region remains on a knife’s edge—where one miscalculation could ignite a wider conflict.