EXPLAINER: From the fight against ISIS to US withdrawal talks
Shafaq News
More than a decade after the US-led Global Coalition was formed to defeat ISIS, Iraq is entering a decisive phase. The 2022 Baghdad–Washington agreement set September 2025 as the point to begin US troop withdrawal. Today, as the deadline approaches, Iraq faces competing pressures: renewed warnings of ISIS activity, political demands for full sovereignty, and armed factions' threats against foreign troops.
From Combat Operations to Training and Support
-The Global Coalition against Daesh was launched in September 2014, led by the United States and joined by 87 members.
-Its first task was to degrade and ultimately defeat ISIS while stabilizing liberated areas.
-Coalition forces provided combat support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Kurdish Peshmerga, and later aided reconstruction.
-Under Operation Inherent Resolve, the mission evolved into training, advisory, intelligence, and surveillance support, including countering ISIS financing.
-Iraq itself is a key member of the Coalition, with its security forces now leading operations against ISIS remnants.
Rising Demands for Foreign Troop Withdrawal
After ISIS’s territorial defeat in 2017, calls for Coalition withdrawal grew louder.
-In January 2020, a US airstrike in Baghdad killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, prompting Iraqi leaders to accuse Washington of violating sovereignty.
-Soon after, Iraq’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution demanding the removal of foreign troops and the cancellation of Baghdad’s formal request for Coalition support.
-In January 2024, US–Iraq negotiations began on the future of foreign troops, focusing on Iraq’s military readiness and the continuing ISIS threat. A joint commission was formed to establish a timeline.
-ISIS propaganda quickly seized on the talks, framing them as proof that “America only understands the language of force.”
-Today, about 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq.
Renewed ISIS Activity
-In July 2024, US Central Command (CENTCOM) warned that ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria were set to double compared to 2023.
-The group claimed 153 attacks in the first half of 2024, surpassing the 121 attacks reported in all of 2023.
-CENTCOM credited US and partner forces with 196 counter-ISIS missions during the same period, including: 137 operations, killing 30 militants, and detaining 74 in Iraq. 59 operations, killing 14 militants and detaining 92 in Syria.
-US officials estimate about 1,000 ISIS fighters remain in Iraq, describing the threat as persistent but contained.
-Critics in Iraq argue the warnings are overstated and used to justify prolonging the US military presence.
PMF Pressure Campaign
-Pro-Iran factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Ansarallah al-Nujabaa, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhadaa, all sanctioned by Washington—have been central to the campaign against US forces.
-These groups targeted US bases in Iraq and Syria, especially after the Gaza war broke out in October 2023.
-In January 2024, they declared a suspension of operations, and no attacks have been recorded since—even during Israel–Iran war.
-Despite this pause, their leaders continue to call the US deployment “illegal” and threaten renewed action if the withdrawal is delayed.
Iraq’s Internal Divide
-The debate remains unresolved within Iraq’s political and security circles:
-Advocates of Withdrawal stress that Iraq’s forces are now capable of defending the country, that foreign troops are unconstitutional, and that sovereignty requires ending external military missions.
-Supporters of the Coalition argue that the US-led presence still plays a stabilizing role, pointing to ongoing ISIS activity and volatile regional conflicts involving Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, and Iran.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
