EXCLUSIVE: Deciphering the repeated targeting of the Khor Mor Gas Field

Shafaq News / In a series of relentless assaults targeting the Khor Mor gas field, energy experts, security analysts, and officials are now pondering the existence of "regional" motives aimed at curbing the aspirations of the Kurdistan Region and Iraq to enter the global gas market.

The drone attack on Friday targeting the Khor Mor gas field in Kurdistan resulted in the tragic death of four Yemeni workers, halting gas supplies to electricity generation stations and causing a decrease in production by approximately 2500 megawatts.

Notably, until the moment, no group has claimed responsibility for the repeated attack, marking the second such assault this year and the eighth in two years.

In the wake of these events, concerns are mounting over the regional dynamics as stakeholders assess the implications on energy security and geopolitical stability.

Why is Khor Mor important?

The significance of the Khor Mor field lies in its vast expanse, spanning 135 square kilometers, making it the largest producing gas field in Iraq.

With confirmed reserves of 8.2 trillion cubic feet, it yields approximately 452 million cubic feet of dry gas and 15,000 barrels of condensates daily, alongside over 1000 metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas.

Located in the Chamchamal district of al-Sulaymaniya governorate, a stronghold of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK,) the field has witnessed shifts in its administrative geography, previously falling under Kirkuk governorate in the 1970s and later coming under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) post-2003, inhabited predominantly by Kurds.

Since 2007, under the leadership of then-Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, KRG has successfully attracted a consortium of energy companies for natural gas extraction.

This pivotal field is instrumental in generating 4200 megawatts of electricity daily, with 2800 megawatts allocated to the Region and the remainder to the governorates of Kirkuk and Nineveh.

For his part, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsumi affirmed these figures, highlighting that the field supplies natural gas via pipelines to the power stations of Chamchamal and Erbil, providing 67% of the Kurdistan Region's electricity needs.

Foreign investment

Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum spearhead investment in the Khor Mor Field, each holding a 35% stake, with 10% held by OMV, MOL, and RWI.

Dana Gas reported a significant 50% production surge between 2018 and 2021, reaching 452 million cubic feet per day, in addition to 15,000 barrels of condensates and over 1000 metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas daily.

Foreign companies have laid out an ambitious plan for maintaining and expanding natural gas processing lines at the Khor Mor facility, aiming to elevate production to 900 million cubic feet per day by 2023, marking a pivotal turning point that adds further value to this field.

However, the envisioned production increase to 630 million cubic feet per day by 2023 has faced delays, primarily due to recurring attacks.

This prompted the US company Exxon to withdraw from the field despite partial funding through a $250 million agreement with the US International Development Finance Corporation.

Moreover, Dana Gas temporarily suspended production in the field following the recent attack.

"To ensure the safety of all our staff and the facilities, we have temporarily suspended production and instituted specific procedural changes," Dana Gas stated in a disclosure on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX).

The company emphasized its full coordination with the authorities of Baghdad and Erbil "to enhance the security and defense measures to allow the resumption of production at the Khor Mor gas facility," expressing support for efforts to bring the perpetrators to justice.

Dana Gas voiced commitment to resuming production once safety measures are in place.

Regional ramifications

An academic and economic expert, Dr. Khalid Haider, emphasized that "targeting the field undermines Kurdistan's self-sufficiency in gas, forcing it to resort to imports alongside electricity from neighboring countries."

The recent attack resulted in a loss of 2500 megawatts of electricity, underscoring its significance and impact.

Given Kurdistan's plans to transport natural gas to Europe, international attention has intensified, particularly amid the escalating repercussions of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis on Europe's energy sector.

Therefore, strides have been made towards a strategic plan to establish a pipeline originating from the Khor Mor Field, passing through Erbil to terminate at Duhok, subsequently connecting to a Turkish pipeline network for transit to EU states.

How does Al-Sudani's visit to Washington relate to this?

In this context, Tariq Jawhar, a PUK leader, expressed to Shafaq News Agency his belief that the recent field targeting is linked to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani's visit to the United States and the energy agreements concluded with Washington.

He added, "US companies seek broader investment in Iraq, particularly in the Khor Mor field, given its high-quality gas used in electricity generation, automotive operation, heating, and domestic purposes."

Jawhar suggested that the entities behind these attacks aim to "pressure the United States into withdrawing its forces from Iraq, fostering instability in energy investment zones to deter American and foreign investors, as seen in previous instances."

He linked this to the past targeting of Erbil and energy sources as a whole, indicating that "recent events align with specific agendas."

During the meeting at the White House, US President Joe Biden commended Iraq's progress towards energy self-sufficiency and discussed future cooperation opportunities with Al-Sudani to ensure Iraq achieves energy self-sufficiency by 2030, with the assistance of American companies.

Biden reaffirmed the United States support for Iraq's efforts to modernize its energy sector, reduce methane emissions, improve public health, provide more reliable electricity to the Iraqi people, and complete electrical grid connections with neighboring countries, including ongoing efforts to link Iraq's grid with Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Notably, Iran began exporting gas to Iraq in 2017, supplying an average of 25 million cubic meters daily under the contract between the two sides.

The US administration granted Iraq licenses to import electricity and gas from Iran every six months. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on March 27 the signing of a new contract to import gas from Iran for five years, with gas imports expected to reach 50 million cubic meters daily.

However, following these agreements, discussions during Al-Sudani's visit to Washington may lead Iraq to reduce its reliance on electricity and gas imported from Iran.

Who's behind the repeated targeting?

In this regard, Jabar Yawer, former Secretary-General of the Peshmerga Ministry, stated to Shafaq News Agency that various unidentified entities have repeatedly targeted the field despite forming joint committees between the Baghdad and Erbil governments.

"However, it is certain that those groups are the same ones opposing the interests of the Region and Baghdad, obstructing regional stability."

In the same context, Osman Zandani, a leading member of the Kurdistan Communist Party, stated that the entities behind the repeated targeting of the field have political agendas despite the unclear identity of the perpetrators.

"If we were to make a political analysis of the situation, fingers of blame would surely point to internal, external, and regional parties. Accusations against any party, entity, or state enter the realm of sensitive legal and political issues. Therefore, we refrain from disclosing the names of these parties. Still, we believe that the matter is nothing more than a political conflict in the region and an agenda aimed at weakening Kurdistan."

Intelligence shortfall

Security expert Sarmad Al-Bayat elucidated that the absence of radar systems for detecting aircraft was a significant factor in targeting the field.

He pointed out that Iraq has agreed with the United States to provide it with six radar systems to detect aircraft, hoping to end the dominance of drones over these areas.

He emphasized that "politics is intertwined with economics, with no separation between them, especially given recent agreements Iraq has made with Turkiye and Qatar, which have unsettled some parties."

"Moreover, the fact that the field produces gas, which could potentially be exported to Europe, may negatively impact certain countries in the region and beyond."

Political targeting

A longstanding dispute between Baghdad and Kurdistan revolves around the oil and gas file, especially following the recent decision by the Federal Court to annul oil and gas contracts signed by KRG with foreign companies.

In May 2022, the North Oil Company, a subsidiary of the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, accused Kurdish Peshmerga forces of seizing a group of fields, including the Khor Mor field.

This dispute was accompanied by an escalation in the media campaign adopted by some parties close to the "Coordination Framework" of the Shiite political parties, which was met with a mobilization of the Turkmen public in Kirkuk.

A month after the dispute, the Khor Mor field was subjected to three rocket attacks within a few days.

Mahmoud Khoshnaw, the political advisor to the Kurdistan Parliament, told Shafaq News Agency that "the groups targeting the field operate in the security gap areas, which are adjacent to the disputed areas."

He noted that targeting the Khor Mor field came from the southwest of the field, which are remote areas requiring the presence of security forces. "The governmental authorities agreed some time ago to form joint forces to secure the land, but this decision has not yet materialized."

Khoshnaw pointed out that the groups targeting the fields "do not belong to a specific party but work for the benefit of internal and external agendas, as dictated by the other party."

Looming breakthrough

Last week, during a meeting for the State Administration Coalition (SAC,) Prime Minister Al-Sudani announced progress in the investigation regarding the attack on the Khor Mor gas field.

The SAC coalition was established following Muqtada Al-Sadr's withdrawal from politics, comprised of the leading Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish forces.

A press release by SAC said that the meeting at the government palace discussed various vital matters, including Al-Sudani's visit to Washington and the attack on the Khor Mor field.

In response to the recent bombing targeting the oil field in Chamchamal district, SAC's press release pointed out that Al-Sudani confirmed, "the discovery of leads to those responsible, assuring that legal actions would be taken against the perpetrators once the investigation concludes, and reaffirming the government's commitment to upholding justice and security."

However, nothing is announced yet.