Drop by drop: Can Iraq avert a thirsty future?

Shafaq News/ Iraq is facing its most severe water crisis in eighty years, as strategic reserves fall to their lowest levels since the 1940s.

“The water situation in Iraq is both alarming and critical,” warned Ministry of Water Resources spokesperson Khaled al-Shamal, urging an “extraordinary national effort” to prevent a deeper catastrophe.

In response, the government has launched an urgent three-pronged strategy: advancing regional water diplomacy, tightening domestic consumption, and cracking down on illegal usage—steps officials view as essential to safeguarding the country’s vanishing lifeline.

Seeking a Shared Flow

With more than 70% of its water flowing in from Turkiye, Iran, and Syria, Iraq faces intensifying challenges in securing upstream cooperation as its water crisis deepens. The Euphrates has already lost over 60% of its flow in the past two decades, while the shrinking Tigris now threatens agriculture, electricity generation, and access to drinking water. Together, the two rivers provide more than 98% of Iraq’s surface water.

The Iraqi government has elevated water management to a top-tier strategic priority in an attempt to contain the situation. “The government has elevated the water file to a sovereign matter under the direct supervision of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,” explained al-Shamal to Shafaq News.

Iraq has also signed a framework agreement with Turkiye, Iran, and Syria. However, implementation remains inconsistent. Al-Shamal noted that water issues topped the agenda in Baghdad’s latest round of discussions with all three countries, as Iraq pushes for guarantees on water flow and mechanisms for lasting cooperation.

Among Iraq’s neighbors, Turkiye plays an especially pivotal role. Through its Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), it has built 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants, giving it control over 90% of the Euphrates and nearly half of the Tigris. These large-scale developments have dramatically reduced water flows downstream, worsening droughts and drying out farmland in Iraq’s southern provinces.

“Negotiations require patience, strategy, and the right tools,” al-Shamal remarked, expressing cautious optimism about the role of diplomacy. Iraq is advocating for the creation of joint technical committees with its neighbors to monitor river flows, coordinate dam operations, and improve data-sharing frameworks.

Farming Smarter, Not Harder

Iraq’s second nationwide water reform initiative has turned its attention to agriculture, which consumes more than 80% of the country’s freshwater. Yet, a significant portion of this water is lost before it even reaches crops, due to outdated systems. Traditional methods like surface irrigation and unlined canals result in up to 60% of water being wasted through evaporation and seepage.

To change this, the Ministry of Water Resources is expanding the use of modern irrigation technologies. Early trials with drip and sprinkler systems have delivered encouraging results, cutting water consumption by as much as half while increasing crop yields by 20 to 40 percent. Similar approaches in Jordan and Morocco have not only boosted efficiency but also helped slow the spread of soil salinization.

This technological shift is being accompanied by changes in what Iraq grows. The government is revising its national crop map to reduce the cultivation of water-heavy crops like rice and maize, which each require more than 10,000 cubic meters of water per hectare. These are being replaced with more sustainable options, such as wheat, barley, and vegetables, which typically require less than half the water.

To better manage this transition, the government is introducing identity-based farm registration. “The new system links each plot to a digital database,” explained al-Shamal. “This allows authorities to track seasonal irrigation, manage demand, and plan more effectively.”

According to al-Shamal, the new agricultural strategy is built on three core principles: “available reserves, reliable inflow forecasts, and global market dynamics.”

He also described this summer’s water allocation plan as a departure from past routines. “The summer plan was structured rather than traditional,” he noted, laying out the order of priorities: drinking water came first, followed by domestic and seasonal use, then agriculture, and finally the Shatt al-Arab and the marshes. Despite limited resources, al-Shamal reassured that Iraq’s drinking and household water needs remain fully secured.

Moreover, a high-level meeting between the Ministries of Water Resources and Agriculture is expected to finalize the agricultural plan for the upcoming summer or winter planting season. The decisions made will determine how water is allocated in the months ahead, at a time when every drop matters more than ever.

Sealing the Leaks

The final pillar of Iraq’s water reform strategy targets illegal water usage, pollution, and unauthorized encroachments—violations that the Ministry of Water Resources has described as catastrophic. Al-Shamal highlighted the persistent abuses by individuals, institutions, and industries that deprive others of their rightful share of water.

“These include excessive withdrawals, construction along riverbanks, and pollution from industrial or household waste,” he warned. “The ministry treats these violations as crimes against national water security.”

Since early 2023, authorities have filed more than 6,400 legal cases targeting these offenses, with over 2,000 cases already adjudicated. A nationwide enforcement campaign, backed by the judiciary and security forces, has dismantled illegal pumps, sealed unauthorized wells, and prosecuted polluters across several provinces.

According to al-Shamal, the crackdown has already led to water savings of between 50 and 80 cubic meters per second—equating to over 4 million cubic meters daily, enough to meet the basic needs of more than 500,000 people every day.

Experts Divided

Iraq’s worsening water crisis has sparked strong disagreement among experts, with some warning of an imminent disaster, while others offer a more measured outlook.

Water specialist Tahseen al-Moussawi described the situation as “catastrophic,” revealing that Iraq’s strategic water reserves have dwindled to just 11 billion cubic meters—barely a third of what they were a decade ago. He further cautioned that the rising temperatures expected in the coming months would exacerbate evaporation losses.

Al-Moussawi placed much of the blame on the government’s failure to heed repeated international warnings and its weak negotiating position with upstream countries. He argued that Iraq has “received its water policies from others” and failed to secure its fair share, resulting in a loss of control over its critical water resources, as reported by Shafaq News.

However, Economist Karim al-Hilu pointed to the heavy rainfall and widespread flooding in March and April, which replenished key reservoirs and brought additional water flows from Iran and Saudi Arabia.

According to preliminary reports from the Ministry of Water Resources, some dams in eastern and southern Iraq saw inflows increase by as much as 40% compared to the same period last year.

Al-Hilu contended that Iraq’s water stress is less a result of absolute scarcity and more a consequence of structural inefficiencies. He noted that while there are significant challenges, Iraq is not facing a full-blown water crisis at this time. He attributed the current strain largely to aging infrastructure, where up to 60% of water is lost due to leakage in the canal systems.

However, he acknowledged the potential risks of continued mismanagement. “A water crisis could harm agriculture, increase imports, drain foreign currency, and destabilize governments,” he said, “but Iraq is not at that point—yet.”