Changing rules and explosive boundaries: A look at US military movements between Syria and Iraq

Shafaq News/ As tensions intensify across the Middle East, the United States is recalibrating its military posture through carefully calculated moves that reflect the region’s growing complexity.

In a notable development, Washington has recently begun relocating some of its forces from northern and eastern Syria to more secure bases inside Iraq—an adjustment viewed as a tactical repositioning rather than a full withdrawal.

On April 19, 2025, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the US military would consolidate its forces in Syria and cut troop levels to less than 1,000. He called the move “deliberate and conditions-based,” stressing it aims to reduce the American presence without abandoning core security goals, particularly the hunt for remaining ISIS fighters.

Sources familiar with the matter told Shafaq News that the repositioning involved multiple bases in Al-Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor, including Conoco, the Al-Omar oil field, and the Green Village. They explained that heavy equipment was removed, and personnel were transferred to the Al-Shaddadi base in preparation for redeployment to facilities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Iraq at the Eye of the Storm

The recent US move has sparked renewed fears that Iraq could become a battlefield between Washington and Tehran. With more than 67 active Iran-aligned armed factions operating in the country, according to the International Crisis Group, there is growing concern that any regional escalation could lead to confrontations on Iraqi soil.

“The redeployment comes at a time when Israel and Turkiye are negotiating a potential de-escalation line in Syria to avoid outright conflict,” Frank Musmar, a Republican member and chairman of the Advisory Board at the University of Maryland, informed Shafaq News.

He warned that Iraq's complex security and political ties to both Tehran and Washington make it particularly vulnerable to a broader conflict, especially with the increasing influence of Iran-backed groups.

"If nuclear talks between both countries collapse, Iraq won't just see heightened tensions," Musmar warned. "It could become a literal battlefield," with these groups potentially targeting US assets and personnel should a confrontation between the two powers occur.

The Future of US Presence

According to Samir Al-Taqi, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, recent US troop movements signal a strategic repositioning rather than a full withdrawal. While the number of American forces remains small, their presence continues to play a significant role in the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, especially with the resurgence of ISIS, the rise of extremist forces in Syria, and the emergence of new, unregulated factions in Iraq, he shared with our agency.

The researcher believes that a complete withdrawal, even if agreed upon with the Iraqi government by September next year, remains unlikely. He noted that despite multiple statements by President Donald Trump during his first term about pulling US troops out of Syria, such plans never came to fruition.

Describing the US presence in Syria as a "revolving door," Al-Taqi pointed out that troops move in and out without any formal announcements or actual reduction in force. He cautioned that a full pullout could open the door for ISIS’s return or allow uncontrolled militant groups to gain ground in both Syria and Iraq.

Recent movements of US forces, he suggested, might also be linked to potential preparations for military responses to Iran. "Troops are being deployed in various directions, including toward the Al-Dumayr Military Airport in Syria or into Iraq. Though they may appear contradictory, these moves serve a strategic purpose—either to take precautions against potential terrorist threats or to reinforce positions like Al-Tanf near Deir ez-Zor and al-Sanamayn."

Biden vs. Trump

It remains unclear whether these steps reflect a long-term strategic vision or are merely a temporary response. The Biden administration, for instance, which sought to balance reducing military involvement while containing terrorism threats, has not effectively ended the US presence.

However, observers suggest the equation could change with President Trump. Despite multiple promises to withdraw troops from Syria, he did not follow through. At the same time, he was quick to use military force, as seen in Yemen or in high-profile assassinations like that of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.

Based on Trump’s statements, any Iranian delay in reaching a nuclear deal would be met with a potential military response. US security circles are concerned that this could spark a wider confrontation, starting in Iraq with unpredictable consequences.

Fragile Balance

The lingering question remains: Are Washington’s actions part of a gradual withdrawal or a strategic repositioning to enhance deterrence? In both cases, the situation in Iraq and Syria is intertwined with the broader geopolitical game involving Tehran, Moscow, Tel Aviv, and Ankara.

In this complex landscape, Iraq remains the most vulnerable, at risk of pressure and potential instability, while the US seeks to avoid its military presence becoming a costly strategic burden.

For Shafaq News, Mostafa Hashem, Washington, D.C.