Can a Kurdish framework emerge? Iraq’s new political alignments test the Kurdish house
Shafaq News
Iraq’s political landscape is undergoing a deep restructuring following the recent elections, as major components move to consolidate their positions ahead of government formation. After the Shiite Coordination Framework reaffirmed its internal hierarchy and Sunni forces surprised observers by forming the broad National Political Council, attention has shifted sharply toward the Kurdish arena — now the most divided of the three blocs.
Amid these shifts, a central question is gaining urgency in Erbil and al-Sulaymaniyah: Can the Kurds revive a unified negotiating structure — a modern equivalent of the historic Kurdistan Alliance — or will internal fractures leave them sidelined as other components shape the next government?
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Kurds in Waiting Mode
According to Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) figure Wafaa Mohammed Karim, the emergence of the “largest bloc” inside the Shiite Coordination Framework does not mean an agreement has been reached on the next prime minister.
“The premiership remains unresolved,” he told Shafaq News, noting that Sunnis themselves have yet to settle on a consensus candidate for parliament speaker — a process requiring wide cross-component agreement.
Karim acknowledged that “the Kurdish house, unfortunately, is still not united,” but believes that once the Shiite nominee for premier is finalized, Kurdish parties will be compelled to move quickly. “Even if Kurds go to parliament with two candidates for the presidency, one will be chosen. The obstacle is not the presidency itself.”
Karim stressed that the KDP — the leading Kurdish list nationwide with more than one million votes — is not opposed to supporting a Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) nominee for president if the candidate restores dignity to an office that has “lost much of its stature” since the era of the late Jalal Talabani.
He added that the KDP’s priorities lie not in positions but in delivering on key national files: Article 140, the oil and gas law, the federal budget, and amendments to the election law. If Kurds unite around these demands, he said, “the KDP is ready to make major concessions.”
Necessary Unity and Troubling Reality
On the other side of the political divide, PUK official Mahmoud Khoshnaw described the situation as “far from enviable,” especially compared to the consolidated Shiite front and the newly united Sunni camp.
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“Kurdish parties must operate under one working paper,” he told Shafaq News, “whether represented in Baghdad or not. A unified vision toward federal governance strengthens both Iraq’s stability and that of Kurdistan.”
Khoshnaw warned that continuing the rivalry between the KDP and PUK would have severe consequences: “Anyone who believes they can move alone is mistaken. Previous experiences showed that Kurdish influence in Baghdad declined because some forces bypassed or undermined joint agreements.”
He urged Kurdish parties to move beyond “electoral euphoria” and abandon political arm-twisting inside Kurdistan. “No party’s victory should come at the expense of state stability,” he said. “Despite competition, we still believe in unified action and hope all Kurdish forces can reach a shared formula that serves the public good.”
Power Gap Exposed
Despite winning 56 parliamentary seats, Kurdish parties enter Baghdad without a unified negotiating umbrella.
According to Kurdistan Islamic Union official Mustafa Abdullah, Baghdad today witnesses clear cohesion among Shiites and Sunnis, while Kurds lack any effective coalition representing their voters at the federal level.
Abdullah told Shafaq News that forming a Kurdish negotiating bloc is now a “pressing necessity,” but remains blocked by persistent KDP–PUK disputes — which he described as the main obstacle to Kurdish unification.
He pointed out that more than a year has passed since the Kurdistan Region’s parliamentary elections without a new government — a “precise indicator of the political gap” between the two dominant parties.
“Kurdish parties have represented their own organizations more than their citizens,” he said. “The consequence has been a tangible decline in Kurdish rights inside Baghdad.”
He added that smaller Kurdish parties have not presented credible initiatives for a unified front, leaving the scene “hostage to bilateral rivalry.”
Read more: The Kurdish spine of Iraq’s elections: Unity tested by division
Key Entitlements Threatened
Kurdistan Socialist Party spokesman Farhad Tawfiq said his party called — even before the elections — for a broad Kurdistan Alliance to unify political forces and prevent the dispersion of Kurdish votes.
In an interview with Shafaq News, Tawfiq warned that the current stage requires “greater unity than before the elections,” and that strong alliances confronting the Kurdish component pose a direct threat to its entitlements.
He described a growing sense of anxiety among Kurds: “Positions traditionally belonging to Kurds could also be at risk if fragmentation continues.”
Tawfiq argued the coming phase demands a “single Kurdish line and team spirit,” with internal disputes contained inside the Region rather than exported to Baghdad. He urged political forces to adopt a national Kurdish initiative that includes opposition parties under one umbrella.
What Would a Kurdish Framework Achieve?
According to IHEC’s final results, Shiite-led lists secured 187 seats, while Sunni forces won 77, and Kurdish parties obtained 56 seats.
Within the Kurdish camp, the KDP emerged as the dominant force with 28 seats — in some tallies reduced to 26 due to district variations — while the PUK captured 15 seats. The remaining Kurdish seats went to New Generation (Al-Jeel Al-Jadeed), the Kurdistan Islamic Union, the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal), and the National Contract Movement.
These figures show that while the Kurds remain Iraq’s third-largest parliamentary bloc, they lack the political cohesion displayed by the Shiite and Sunni fronts.
If Kurdish forces managed to form an umbrella, they would collectively command 56 seats — possibly more when allied quota MPs are factored in — giving them substantial bargaining power. A unified Kurdish framework would allow them to protect the presidency from internal rivalry and secure binding guarantees on core issues such as oil, gas, the federal budget, and Article 140. It would also enable the Kurds to shape negotiations over the next prime minister, ensuring that no Shiite–Sunni agreement is concluded at their expense.
Such cohesion would restore their long-standing role as Iraq’s political “kingmakers,” placing them once again at the center of federal decision-making. But without unity, these entitlements risk slipping into wider cross-component deals that could bypass Kurdish priorities altogether.
The window is narrowing, and the coming weeks will determine whether the Kurds return to the center of Iraq’s political balance, or remain observers of a process moving rapidly around them.
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Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
