Putin opposes Baghdad mediation in Turkish-Syrian talks, prefers Ankara venue

Shafaq News/ Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly expressed opposition to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani's efforts to mediate a direct meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Baghdad.

According to a Middle East Eye report, Putin prefers Russian mediation and would rather see such a meeting take place in Ankara.

Since April, Al-Sudani has intensified his efforts to broker a deal aimed at restoring diplomatic relations between Ankara and Damascus.

The report highlighted increased tensions within Turkiye due to hosting approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees, exacerbating Turkiye's economic challenges. Ankara now believes it is time to start talks with Damascus to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees and form a coalition against Kurdish armed groups in eastern Syria.

The report recalled that meetings facilitated by Russia took place in Moscow between the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of Turkiye and Syria during 2022 and 2023. However, these meetings failed to break the deadlock due to al-Assad's preconditions, particularly his demand for a full Turkish military withdrawal from northern Syria before engaging in any negotiations.

The Damascus-Ankara conflict

The conflict between Syria and Turkiye, stemming from the broader Syrian civil war, has been marked by complex dynamics and shifting alliances.

Initially, Turkiye supported Syrian opposition groups seeking to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, providing aid and sanctuary to rebels. However, as the conflict progressed, the rise of Kurdish groups in northern Syria, particularly the YPG, which Turkiye views as an extension of the PKK (a designated terrorist organization in Turkiye), became a central issue.

Turkiye launched multiple military operations to push Kurdish forces away from its border and create a buffer zone, leading to direct confrontations with Kurdish groups and tensions with the US, which supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS.

The involvement of Russia and Iran, both staunch al-Assad allies, further complicated Turkish ambitions.

The Syrian war has caused over 500,000 deaths and displaced millions, creating a severe humanitarian crisis.

Despite multiple peace efforts, including UN-led talks, a political resolution remains elusive.

The conflict has devastated Syria's economy, led to widespread human rights abuses, and reshaped Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Putin Prefers Russian Mediation

Moscow-based expert on Russian affairs Umit Nazmi Hazir noted that al-Assad had previously been reluctant to engage with Erdogan, suspecting that Ankara might use such a meeting to its advantage during last year's Turkish presidential elections. However, the situation has since changed, influenced by the deteriorating Syrian economy.

The Iraqi government, under Al-Sudani, has reportedly made significant progress in its mediation efforts, convincing al-Assad to drop his preconditions and instead seek a Turkish commitment to an eventual withdrawal from Syria.

Following positive statements from Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler in June and reciprocal comments from al-Assad and Erdogan, Turkiye opened a border crossing with Syrian government-controlled areas and began clearing a vital highway connecting Turkiye with Syria and the Gulf.

The report cited sources suggesting that Syria and Turkiye are set to negotiate in Baghdad under Iraqi government auspices, with Al-Sudani aiming to host the first in-person meeting between Erdogan and Assad in over a decade.

However, a Turkish official said Al-Sudani believes such a meeting could bolster his position domestically ahead of next year's parliamentary elections in Iraq. Putin, on the other hand, does not support this idea and prefers a meeting in Turkiye.

The report quoted a source explaining that Erdogan's public invitation to al-Assad for a meeting in Turkiye, with Russian mediation, reflects this preference. Erdogan recently stated that "Putin has an approach to hold meetings in Turkiye. The Iraqi Prime Minister also has his views on this issue."

According to Hazir, Moscow is keen to maintain its role in facilitating negotiations between Ankara and Damascus, having been involved from the outset. "For Russia, achieving the normalization process under Iraqi leadership risks the involvement of other actors," he added.

Iranian and Russian Influence

The report also highlighted competition between Iran and Russia, both key supporters of Damascus, for influence in Syria.

An Iranian official reportedly told Turkish counterparts last month that Tehran is also pressing Damascus to lift its preconditions for dialogue with Ankara. According to sources close to the negotiations, Iran does not want to be sidelined as Iraqi mediation progresses.

Hazir noted that while Iraq is seen as a more neutral facilitator for reconciliation talks, Russia wields greater influence to resolve outstanding issues.

"Russia, dealing with the Ukrainian conflict, seeks to settle the Syrian crisis and reduce its burdens, but it wants to do so by increasing its dominance in Syria," Hazir said.