Iraq caught between US-Iran axis: Experts debate Baghdad’s fate

Shafaq News/ Iraq is no longer a top priority for US foreign policy, according to former Assistant Secretary of State Denise Natali.

Speaking Monday at a Chatham House panel in London—attended by Shafaq News—Natali, now a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Washington views Baghdad as increasingly aligned with Tehran and is closely watching whether Iraqi authorities will comply with sanctions on Iran.

Although the US has not completely disengaged, Natali explained that American involvement in Iraq’s state-building and civil society development is steadily diminishing, marked by sharp reductions in institutional support.

UK MENA Director Stephen Hickey acknowledged, during the panel, Iraq’s efforts to stay neutral amid rising regional tensions but cautioned that its stability remains precarious, urging Baghdad to advance governance reforms, crackdown on corruption, and restructure its security forces to avoid being pulled into a wider conflict. He also recommended deeper ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as a path to regional stability, calling them increasingly constructive actors.

Another Speaker, Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs argued that Tehran still clings to its foothold in Iraq, despite growing resistance, warning that Iran perceives Iraq’s economic recovery and closer Arab ties as threats to its dominance. “Iran doesn’t want a strong Iraq; it wants a Shiite-led Iraq,” Azizi remarked, adding that Tehran now favors Oman over Baghdad as a diplomatic channel, despite their formal alliance.

In addition, Political analyst Sajad Jiyad of Century International urged a recalibration of Iraq-Iran relations, framing the moment as a strategic opening for Baghdad. “Iran knows the region has changed. It can’t keep managing Iraq through the IRGC,” Jiyad observed, referencing Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent visit to Lebanon as evidence of Tehran’s shifting approach.

Jiyad recalled that the last major shift in Iraq-Iran ties came in 2011, following the US troop withdrawal, when Iran’s focus turned to countering American presence. Today, he argued, regional realignments give Iraq’s current or future leadership a chance to renegotiate the relationship based on the realities of a transformed geopolitical landscape.