Oil prices fall on uncertainty over Hormuz reopening
Shafaq News
Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, as markets weighed prospects for resumption of supply through the key Strait of Hormuz against shaky physical market drivers and a lack of details from a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.
By 0436 GMT, Brent crude futures fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.92 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate inched down 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.66 a barrel.
On Monday, oil prices fell nearly 5% to their lowest close since March 4, after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been made public.
The hostilities led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that typically carried one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the conflict.
Some analysts expect a resumption of supply soon via the Strait, with other factors weighing down physical market prices.
"From here, it likely takes several weeks for tanker flow to be restored," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a client note.
"We see 50% of production back by September, and 80% by December, slightly faster than before."
A broad range of indicators had signalled weakness in physical oil markets in recent weeks, they added.
"High U.S. exports and low China imports are the key drivers (and) in the short term (i.e. next weeks) they do not seem to come to an end just yet."
China's crude imports slumped 29% in May to their lowest in eight years, extending a dramatic decline for the world's importer, with its liftings of Saudi Arabia crude expected to also fall in July.
Early indications are that the U.S.-Iran deal would reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to tackle difficult issues such as the future of Iran's nuclear programme.
On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the U.S.-Iran pact an "important step" toward stopping the fighting but cautioned a final agreement for a lasting truce "has yet to take shape".
But with full details yet to emerge and a permanent truce still to be reached, overall price weakness is limited.
Suvro Sarkar, the head of DBS Bank's energy research, said the deal's first phase, encompassing the Geneva signing of an extension of the 60-day ceasefire, was easy, would buy time and kick the "nuclear can" down the road.
But the second phase, to be watched most closely by markets for its physical impact, is the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the wind-down of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, he added.
"Anything other than a clean simultaneous unlock will mean renewed volatility in oil prices," Sarkar said. "Given the trust deficit so far, it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks."
On Monday, a senior Iranian official said Iran would freeze its nuclear activity until a final agreement, and refrain from further uranium enrichment or expansion of nuclear facilities.
(Reuters)
Only the headline is edited by Shafaq News Agency.
