Oil could hit $170 if Hormuz closure persists

Shafaq News – Baghdad

Fitch Ratings warned that oil markets could face sharp volatility in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid ongoing regional conflict.

In a report, the agency said Brent crude could average $120 per barrel if the strait stays shut for six months, compared with around $100 under a three-month disruption scenario.

Fitch said shipping through Hormuz has been heavily affected by the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, raising concerns over global oil supply.

Under a shorter closure, prices could spike to $130 per barrel during the disruption, before easing to about $90 by year-end, the report said.

In a prolonged six-month scenario, Brent could trade between $130 and $170 per barrel during the closure period, before falling back toward $90 later in the year.

Fitch’s baseline forecast places Brent at an average of $70 per barrel in 2026, with a temporary rise to $100 in March, easing to $90 in the second quarter, and declining to around $60 thereafter.