OPEC slashes 2025 oil demand forecast
Shafaq News/ On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
In its monthly report, OPEC noted that the downward revision reflects early-year consumption trends as well as the likely drag from increased trade restrictions, particularly in emerging markets.
According to OPEC’s report, demand growth within OECD countries is expected to remain marginal at around 40,000 bpd, while non-OECD nations will account for the bulk of the increase, contributing roughly 1.25 million bpd in 2025.
On the supply side, OPEC expects oil production from non-OPEC+ countries to rise by 900,000 bpd next year, down from its previous forecast of 1.01 million bpd, pointing out that the majority of additional supplies will come from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, with similar momentum anticipated through 2026.
OPEC also revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, citing persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, which could weigh on overall energy demand.
The OPEC projection follows similar caution from other institutions. Last week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its own 2025 demand growth forecast by 30%, now estimating an increase of just 900,000 bpd. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has issued an even more subdued outlook, forecasting global oil consumption to grow by no more than 500,000 bpd next year.
