Iraq’s H1 2025 trade surplus sinks due to weaker oil sales

Shafaq News – Baghdad

Iraq’s trade surplus shrank by 33% in the first half of 2025 as falling crude exports outpaced gains in refined products and non-oil sales, economic analyst Manar al-Obaidi said on Sunday.

In a statement, Al-Obaidi, head of the Iraq Future think tank, put the surplus at $11.7B for January–June, down from $17.6B a year earlier. Oil exports fell 11% to $43.3B, while imports rose 7% to $35.7B.

He noted that refined product sales jumped 88% to $2.1B and non-oil exports climbed 68% to $1.9B, but these increases were not enough to offset weaker crude revenues.

Al-Obaidi cautioned that further oil price declines coupled with higher imports could push Iraq’s trade balance into deficit.