EXCLUSIVE: LNG terminals a slow fix for Iraq’s urgent energy needs

Shafaq News/ Iraq is facing a growing electricity crisis as soaring summer temperatures collide with the expiration of US sanctions waivers—cutting off critical gas imports from Iran, experts warned on Wednesday.

“Iraq has lots of gas reserves, but most of it is associated with oil production, and their gas transport and processing infrastructure is underdeveloped,” explained Dr. Paul Sullivan, Professor of Energy Security at Johns Hopkins University, in an exclusive interview with Shafaq News.

He urged domestic investment, stating, “The solution for Iraq is to develop its internal resources and infrastructure for gas. But that will take some time.”

Iraq currently imports around 50 million cubic feet of Iranian gas daily—roughly two-thirds of its power generation capacity—according to government spokesperson Basim al-Awadi. However, the expiration of US sanctions waivers on March 7 has severely disrupted those imports, leading to nationwide blackouts.

Sullivan characterized the situation as “extremely difficult,” warning that Iraq is trapped in a time-sensitive crisis. While some have suggested switching to floating LNG terminals, he noted, “Even getting FLNG ships docked and ready to import will take time.”

The professor also pointed out that Germany was able to adapt quickly after losing Russian supplies, but emphasized that Iraq faces a very different set of logistical and financial constraints

Dr. Muhyiddin Qassar, a former economics professor at Northwestern University, said that reinstating the waiver remains politically uncertain. “Trump could reverse course, but right now he’s using energy policy as leverage in nuclear talks with Iran,” he observed.

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz reportedly told Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during a March call that ending the waiver aligns with Washington’s broader strategy to pressure Tehran over its nuclear and regional activities.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity reported current generation capacity at 28,000 megawatts—far short of the estimated 50,000 megawatts needed to meet peak summer demand. The resulting shortfall is already causing grid instability and power outages.

Iraq is now evaluating LNG imports from Qatar and Oman, and pipeline gas from Turkmenistan. However, Sullivan cautioned that gas from Turkmenistan would likely need to transit through Iran—a route now politically complicated. “That doesn’t seem feasible at the moment.”

While the Iraqi government has expressed a long-term goal of gas self-sufficiency, Sullivan stressed the urgency of acting on multiple fronts. “With serious investment, it’s possible over the long term. But they need to move fast and pursue parallel strategies, including storage development and alternative generation sources.”

Some analysts have proposed waste-to-energy or geothermal power as part of Iraq’s long-term strategy, but Sullivan noted those are far from immediate fixes. “Those also take time to set up.”

He also warned that Iraq’s energy vulnerability could be exploited by destabilizing actors. “Iraq is between a giant rock and a very hard place. The region is a mess. It will get worse if Iraq tumbled into more turmoil.”

Sullivan expressed cautious optimism that upcoming US-Gulf meetings could deliver solutions. “The region needs a stable Iraq. Leadership knows that.”